John Bolton has a habit of describing the world in blunt, slightly ominous terms, and Wednesday was no exception. The former national security adviser said Iran's network of regional militant allies has been thwarted, but added that Tehran is playing a longer game: outlasting the U.S. to eventually control the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Is Waiting Out the US

In a post on X, Bolton wrote that "Iran's Ring of Fire strategy has been thwarted," referring to Tehran's effort to encircle its adversaries with allied militant groups. That's the good news. The less good news came right after.

"But Tehran is waiting out the U.S., believing the White House will weaken resolve, opening a door for Iran to gain hegemony over the Strait of Hormuz, and across the Islamic world," he added.

Bolton, who served as President Donald Trump's national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, has long been a critic of Iran's government. So his read on Tehran's intentions comes with a certain amount of built-in skepticism, but also a certain amount of experience.

Trump Warns of a 'Nice Way' or a 'Not-So-Nice Way'

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that Iran's military is "shot" and that the U.S. is doing "extremely well."

"It's only a question of which way do we want to do it, the nice way or the not-so-nice way?" Trump said. "And pretty soon you'll find out."

Meanwhile, the Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command to complete preparations to potentially resume major combat operations in Iran, Axios reported Wednesday, citing U.S. officials. The directive set no launch date, and Trump has not made a final decision. It is also reportedly preparing to deploy 9,000 to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East, including a third carrier strike group, with forces expected by the end of November.

Oil Flows Recover

Goldman Sachs analyst Nikhil Bhandari told CNBC on Monday that flows through the Strait of Hormuz should fully normalize by the second half of next year, which would stabilize crude at around $80 a barrel.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was 1.86% higher at $102.08 a barrel, while WTI futures were up 1.61% at $89.70 per barrel.

Mohammadreza Naqdi, an adviser to the Revolutionary Guards' commander, told Fars News on Wednesday that the strait "is closed" and that Iran's armed forces "have full control over it," Reuters reported.

So you have Bolton saying the ring has been broken, Trump saying Iran's military is shot, the Pentagon quietly preparing options, and Iran's own people saying the strait is closed. The market, as usual, is pricing all of it in real time.