Shell PLC (NYSE:SHEL) on Wednesday raised its outlook for the third quarter of 2026 on higher fuel demand amid the Middle East conflict keeping crude oil prices elevated.
Notably, Brent crude prices climbed in the third quarter of 2026 as renewed Middle East military action heightened supply concerns. Brent futures peaked at $109/barrel on September 15, while spot prices reached $132/barrel.
Brent averaged about $104/barrel in the final two weeks as markets weighed peace talks against broader conflict risks.
Raises Production Outlook
Shell now expects Integrated Gas production of 740,000 – 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), up from its previous guidance of 570,000 – 630,000 boe/d.
Meanwhile, the steep upward revision in overall Integrated Gas production reflects the addition of new assets; Shell noted that its earlier production guidance (570,000–630,000 boe/d) excluded contributions from Qatar and ARC Resources, the latter of which officially closed on September 2, 2026.
Shell also increased its Upstream production forecast to 1.735 million to 1.835 million boe/d from its earlier range of 1.68 million to 1.88 million boe/d.
Shell revised its LNG liquefaction outlook to 7.2 – 7.6 million metric tons, compared with prior guidance of 7.1 – 7.7 million metric tons.
Refining Utilization Impacted
Shell narrowed outlook for refinery utilization to 93% – 97%, compared with previous guidance of 93% – 101% as low Rhine water levels impacted Rheinland refinery utilization.
The company projects its third-quarter refining margin of $42 per barrel versus $24 per barrel in the second quarter.
Chemical plant utilization is expected to range between 81% and 85%, compared with prior guidance of 78% to 86%.
Shell also projects marketing sales volumes of 2.55 million to 2.65 million barrels per day, versus its earlier outlook of 2.55 million to 2.75 million barrels per day.
The company expects cash flow from operations (CFFO), excluding working capital, to include approximately $2.5 billion in the third quarter outflow due to the timing of payments for emissions certificates under Germany's BEHG.
Shell Earnings October 29, 2026: Estimates and Analyst Targets
Looking ahead, Shell's next major stock catalyst is its confirmed October 29, 2026 earnings report.
Analysts expect EPS of $1.40, down from $1.86 a year earlier, while revenue is estimated at $87.84 billion, up from $68.15 billion. The stock trades at a P/E of 10.8x, suggesting a valuation opportunity relative to peers.
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $110.40. Recent analyst moves include:
- TD Cowen: Buy (Raises Target to $115.00) (September 28)
- Piper Sandler: Neutral (Raises Target to $100.00) (September 3)
- Piper Sandler: Neutral (Raises Target to $89.00) (August 3)
SHEL Price Action: Shell shares were down 0.01% at $97.61 during premarket trading on Wednesday. The stock is approaching its 52-week high of $99.15, according to market data.
