Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) has a number for you: 28.5%. That's how much Social Security benefits get cut in six years if Congress does nothing before the trust fund runs dry.

In a post on X on Tuesday, Cassidy said, “Social Security faces a 28.5% benefit cut in just six years if Congress doesn’t act,” adding that he joined host Janet Alvarez on The Business Briefing to discuss the problem and his proposal to help fund the program “for generations to come.”

In the interview, Cassidy said, “CBO [Congressional Budget Office] anticipates” that Congress will try to borrow its way out of the problem, and that “the negative impact of borrowing as much money as would be required cannot be modeled. It is so harmful to the economy.” He said Social Security’s unfunded liability “accounts for about 20% and will rise to 24% of our total national debt.”

Cassidy also warned that a 28.5% benefit cut “would double the rate of poverty among the elderly.”

Cassidy’s $1.5 Trillion Fix

Cassidy proposed creating what he called a “pension investment fund,” distinct from the Social Security Trust Fund. “We would set up an investment fund, a pension investment fund, separate from the Social Security Trust Fund, put $1.5 trillion in it over five years, $250 billion a year,” he said.

He said the borrowing required “would not increase our nation’s debt,” since “if you’ve got $1.5 trillion after five years in escrow, you could liquidate it and pay off the debt, so it’s considered a wash.” He said the fund, invested in the broader economy, it “blossoms out” over 65 to 75 years and “ends up taking care of 60 to 70% of the unfunded accrued liability.”

Cassidy also pointed to the bipartisan PROMISE Act he introduced with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), saying “the time has run out for the Promise Act to be effective,” but that he hopes to continue the effort “independent of the Promise Act.” He said any fix would need support from both parties since “it takes 60 votes in the Senate to pass something.”

Cassidy’s warning follows months of escalating urgency around the fund’s finances. The bipartisan PROMISE Act, introduced in July, sought to force a structured congressional debate on reforms, while other lawmakers, including Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), have grown more open to raising the payroll tax cap as a possible fix.

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