Oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz again, and Middle East exports have reportedly exceeded pre-war levels. That's the good news. The less good news? Getting all the way back to normal is going to take a while.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) analyst Nikhil Bhandari told CNBC on Monday that the movement could stabilize in the second half of next year. In other words, full normalization of the flows is a 2027 story, not a 2026 one.

$80 Crude and the Refinery Squeeze

Bhandari said refineries outside the Middle East and Russia would hit maximum stretch levels by March next year. Refinery operations in the Middle East and Russia, though, could take longer "given some damage to the infrastructure."

He also noted that dark fleet movement has helped increase oil movement overall. Then came the big question: when does the Strait of Hormuz fully open up?

"Our baselines are that the full normalization of the flows will happen sometime by second half of next year," Bhandari said, adding that this scenario would result in oil stabilizing at around $80 per barrel.

But here's a wrinkle: the crack spread, which is the profit refineries earn converting crude oil into fuel, has to stay "much higher" than the usual $20 spread even after flows stabilize. So even in the happy scenario, refining economics don't snap back to normal.

Bans Don't Really Work

Bhandari also weighed in on fuel export restrictions. The Trump administration had been mulling a ban on diesel exports, which President Donald Trump later ruled out. Prices have hit record highs in recent weeks, and Trump signed an executive order on Monday allowing the temporary sale of red-dyed diesel for highway use.

On potential restrictions from China, Bhandari called it a "high probability" event that China would restrict its product exports.

"Domestic product inventories are quite heavily depleted locally within China. So focus on product exports is likely going to be less," he said.

For the U.S., Bhandari warned that restricting exports could hit gas prices at the pump. Limiting the "one and a half million barrels" of daily exports would force refinery run cuts and put "more pressure upward on the gasoline prices."

So the takeaway: oil flows are healing, but the path to $80 crude runs through damaged infrastructure, stubborn crack spreads, and export policies that could backfire on drivers.