Oil keeps leaving the Middle East at a healthy clip, which is the good news. The bad news is that the ships carrying it keep getting attacked.
According to a Reuters report Monday citing provisional estimates from ship tracker Kpler, crude exports on Sept. 24, as well as Sept. 27 through Sept. 29, showed about 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels of oil moving per day. For comparison, exports averaged roughly 18 million bpd from March 2025 through February, before the fighting began. Kpler's seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at about 18.5 million bpd on Oct. 1.
That calculation includes volumes moving through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, plus shipments from export terminals and ship-to-ship activity in the Gulf of Oman. Notably, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that Iran had loaded "zero" barrels of oil due to U.S. economic restrictions.
Broader seaborne volumes also remained elevated, according to Reuters, with crude, refined products, chemicals and other non-gas liquids averaging about 22.4 million bpd in the seven days ending Sept. 30 based on Kpler figures. The data does not capture ships that may have crossed with AIS tracking switched off.
Attacks Keep Coming
According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency, multiple incidents have occurred since Sept. 30 in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters.
Most recently, UKMTO reported Monday that multiple explosions were sighted in close proximity about 60 nautical miles south of Al Mukha, Yemen, or roughly 69 miles, in addition to a tanker being struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 4.
The attacks come as Iranian Security Chief Mohsen Rezaee pushed back against President Donald Trump's claims that the country was close to surrendering to the U.S. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei also said that heavy blows suffered by the U.S. at the hands of Tehran will eventually force it out of the Middle East.
Where Oil Prices Stand
At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate crude futures contracts expiring in November 2026 slipped 1.32% to $89.91. Brent futures contracts ending in November were also down 0.79% to $101.44.
During pre-market trading Monday, United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) slipped 1.63% to $145. The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:UCO) was also down, slipping 0.97% to $53.89 during pre-market trading.
The national average gas price in the U.S. continued to fall, with data collected by the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Monday showing the national average at $4.3653/gallon, while the national average price of diesel remained above $6/gallon at $6.3207.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by MarketDash editors.
