Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) could emerge as a major beneficiary of autonomous vehicles as falling robotaxi costs make driverless rides more competitive, according to BNP Paribas Equity Research.

Senior analyst Nick Jones has a $106 price forecast on Uber, implying about 56% upside from the stock's Sept. 28 price of $68.20.

Robotaxi Costs Could Fall Sharply

Jones estimates that robotaxi costs could eventually fall to about 42 cents per mile, compared with roughly $1 per mile for Uber's current human-driven model.

However, the economics remain uncertain. Costs tied to third-party autonomous vehicle fleet operations, licensing, financing and distribution still need to become clearer.

Using Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG) Waymo as a benchmark, Jones estimates that recent all-in robotaxi build costs are about $150,000 per vehicle.

Waymo's next-generation Zeekr platform could lower that figure to about $70,000. Meanwhile, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is targeting roughly $30,000 for its Cybercab.

BNP Paribas believes robotaxi production costs could eventually approach $30,000 at scale. However, $60,000 to $80,000 appears more realistic in the near to medium term.

Uber Could Capture More Autonomous Miles

Current robotaxi operating costs remain near $1 per mile, Jones estimated. That includes depreciation, energy, maintenance, insurance and remote support.

Depreciation remains the biggest expense because vehicle build costs are still high. Over time, BNP Paribas sees operating costs falling to between 16 cents and 42 cents per mile.

Jones said lower manufacturing costs and higher vehicle utilization should make autonomous rides increasingly competitive with human-driven trips.

That could expand the overall ride-hailing market while allowing Uber to capture a larger share of autonomous miles.

The analyst pointed to Uber's global scale, large customer base and expanding network of autonomous vehicle partnerships as key advantages. He said those partnerships also suggest AV developers increasingly view Uber as an important route to customers.

Still, robotaxis will not eliminate every cost associated with a driverless ride. Technology licensing fees, distribution expenses, financing costs and required investment returns will influence consumer pricing.

Jones expects investors to get greater clarity on those economics over the next four to 10 quarters.

UBER Price Action: Uber Technologies shares were up 1.39% at $69.10 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to market data.