Tesla Inc. (TSLA)'s Optimus is entering a robotics market that could get dramatically bigger while many of the startups racing to build it become worth less. OpenAI early investor Vinod Khosla expects robotics to have its "ChatGPT moment" within two years, but warns that most robot startup valuations could decline by 2030.

Robotics Could Have Its AI Moment

Khosla, whose Khosla Ventures has invested in robotics startups including Rhoda AI and Aim, expects dexterous humanoid robots to eventually learn new industrial tasks after just one or two hours of data.

He also expects several highly competitive humanoid robot leaders to emerge. But technological progress does not necessarily mean today's valuations will hold.

Khosla said many companies he wanted to invest in were rejected because of valuation and described the pace of monthly fundraising rounds as "crazy." He expects the industry to undergo a major shakeout as robotics moves from technological promise toward commercial deployment.

Jerry Wang of Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (NASDAQ:FFAI) and AIxCrypto Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AIXC) takes a longer-term view, arguing that U.S. public markets are only beginning to tap the robotics opportunity because there are still "not enough public physical AI robotic compan[ies]" compared with Asia; he expects the sector to be strong in the near term, adjust in the medium term and "do great again long term," likening the trajectory to EVs but "on a shorter time frame."

For investors, that creates an important distinction: the robotics market can be right even when individual valuations are wrong.

Tesla offers one of the clearest public-market windows into that transition. The company is developing Optimus as a humanoid robot aimed initially at industrial applications, giving investors exposure to the technology without having to buy into the private-market valuations Khosla is questioning.

Cheaper Robots Change the Math

John Fowler of MBody AI Ltd. (NASDAQ:MBAI) sees the pressure coming from another direction: falling hardware costs.

"Yes, for much of the sector," Fowler said when asked whether robotics valuations could come under pressure as the industry moves from hype to commercial deployment. "Robot hardware is getting better and cheaper every year, which is great news for customers."

Cheaper robots could accelerate adoption while making it harder for individual hardware companies to sustain premium valuations. Fowler compared the trajectory with PCs and smartphones, where a handful of manufacturers scaled into lasting businesses while many others consolidated.

He expects the market to increasingly focus on "revenue, margins and customer retention."

The Robot May Not Be the Whole Trade

That shift could broaden the robotics opportunity beyond companies building humanoids. Fowler argues that someone will have to "deploy, run, optimize and maintain" growing robot fleets, potentially creating opportunities in the software and services needed to operate them.

Nvidia Corp (NVDA), meanwhile, offers another public-market angle through the computing and AI infrastructure needed to develop increasingly capable machines.

For investors, the next catalyst is therefore not simply a better robot. It is evidence that robotics companies can turn technological breakthroughs into repeatable revenue, healthy margins and durable customer relationships.

Tesla's Optimus may be riding a genuine robotics boom, but Khosla's warning suggests the biggest industry does not necessarily create the biggest valuations for everyone.

TSLA Stock Price Activity: Tesla shares are trading lower by 0.68% at $355.02 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to market data.