Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) stock fell Friday after KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded the stock to Underweight from Sector Weight and set an $18 price forecast, citing worsening broadband competition and pressure across several key businesses.

Analyst Brandon Nispel said Comcast's broadband subscriber trends, average revenue per user and Connectivity & Platforms EBITDA could all come in weaker than expected. He also sees greater pressure on the company's theme parks business.

Nispel said it expects "every key metric" at Comcast to be worse than anticipated.

Broadband Competition Intensifies

KeyBanc lowered its third-quarter broadband net-add estimate to a loss of 140,000 subscribers from a loss of 125,000. The firm now expects Comcast to lose 558,000 broadband customers in 2026, compared with a consensus estimate for a loss of 509,000.

The analyst expects losses to worsen to 665,000 in 2027. Consensus calls for a loss of 482,000.

Nispel pointed to growing competition from fiber providers and fixed wireless access, or FWA. Some competitors are offering 1-gigabit broadband for $30 to $40 a month.

Comcast faces a difficult trade-off, according to KeyBanc. The company could avoid matching those offers and risk higher customer churn. Alternatively, it could cut prices and put pressure on broadband ARPU.

KeyBanc also expects Connectivity & Platforms EBITDA to remain under pressure in the fourth quarter, despite Comcast's cost-cutting efforts.

Theme Parks Add To Concerns

The outlook is also weakening at Comcast's theme parks.

KeyBanc expects theme park operating cash flow to decline 17% in the third quarter and 12% in the fourth quarter. The firm cited soft Orlando attendance and weaker Chinese visitation to Osaka. It expects theme park growth to be roughly flat in 2027, versus consensus expectations for about 9% growth.

August attendance across Universal Studios fell 3% from a year earlier. Average daily attendance at Epic Universe declined to about 13,000 from roughly 16,000 in July, according to data cited by KeyBanc.

NBCUniversal Spin-Off Seen Offering Limited Relief

KeyBanc does not view Comcast's planned NBCUniversal spin-off as a near-term catalyst. Nispel said deteriorating fundamentals in broadband and theme parks could overshadow the transaction and leave room for further valuation compression.

The analyst also said a future Comcast combination with Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) could make strategic sense because of potential savings in back-office operations, marketing and customer support. However, KeyBanc noted that Comcast has not presented such a deal as a reason for the NBCUniversal separation.

CMCSA Price Action: Comcast shares were down 2.15% at $21.65 at the time of publication Friday. The stock is near its 52-week low of $21.28, according to market data.