Here's a fun one: Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) reports fourth-quarter financial results Thursday after market close, and the company might just show off both the good and the bad side of higher gas prices.

Yes, the same gasoline that makes everyone grumble at the pump could be a quiet tailwind for a warehouse retailer that sells it at a discount. Let's walk through the numbers, the expert chatter and the things actually worth watching.

Costco Q4 Earnings Estimates

Analysts expect Costco to report fourth-quarter revenue of $94.82 billion, up from $86.16 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from market data.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in six straight quarters and in seven of the past 10 quarters overall.

On the bottom line, analysts expect fourth-quarter earnings per share of $6.53, up from $5.87 in last year's fourth quarter.

Costco has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in five straight quarters and in eight of the past 10 quarters overall. So the bar is high, and Costco usually clears it anyway.

What Experts Are Saying

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods says the key things for Costco's quarter are comparable sales, membership growth and "the impact of higher fuel prices" on margins.

"It may also give us a strong look at consumer spending habits," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

Woods notes that Costco stock has moved an average of +/- 2.73% after recent earnings releases, so expect some Thursday-night or Friday-morning drama.

Looking at the chart, Woods says there is a near-term downtrend that saw shares break to new lows. He points to support at the $850 level, which is around 5% below current levels.

"This is my area of concern. It could also be a great spot to enter for the long-term investor but also dangerous if it fails to hold."

Here are recent analyst ratings on Costco and their price targets:

• BTIG: Maintained Buy rating, with price target of $1,125
• Oppenheimer: Maintained Outperform rating, with price target of $1,160
• Bank of America Securities: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $1,200 to $1,095

Key Items to Watch

Costco stock has struggled in 2026, with shares recently hitting their lowest level since January. Gas prices and membership commentary could help turn things around.

Higher gas prices are one of the key areas watched by investors and analysts when it comes to Costco. The company reported record gas volumes during the third quarter.

Consumers who have memberships with Costco can get a discount on gas at the retailer's gas stations. That's the trick: cheap fuel gets people onto the lot, and once they're there, they walk into the warehouse.

This surge in usage of the gas stations could increase visits to the warehouses as well, which could lead to incremental shopping revenue. Nobody drives to Costco just for gas and then leaves with only gas. It's basically impossible.

A report from Placer.ai shows Costco having 8.2% year-over-year visitor growth during the second quarter of the calendar year. Costco's fourth fiscal quarter covers part of May, all of June and all of July.

Costco's visitor increases for the second quarter outpaced rivals BJ's (4.9%) and Sam's Club (+4.7%), alongside retail giants Target (+4.7%) and Walmart (0.7%).

The retailer's traffic was up 9% in May, 7.8% in June, and 8.3% in July on a year-over-year basis, according to the report.

The rise in gas prices may also have an impact on membership revenue, which is the company's high-margin, high-renewal segment. With gas savings a major reason to sign up for an account at Costco, membership growth may be higher than in past quarters.

Costco Stock Price Action

Costco stock traded down 0.36% at $896.14 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $844.06 to $1,096.50. Costco stock is up 5.2% year-to-date, with shares trading at their lowest level since January.