So here's a fun thing that happened on Thursday: the stock market decided to stop being sad and go back up. After four straight days of sliding, with the Nasdaq 100 slipping back below its August close, investors got a little gift from the Federal Reserve. Governor Christopher Waller basically said, "Hey, maybe we don't need to hike rates in September after all." And the market was like, "Oh, cool, let's buy stuff."
Waller's exact words were: "If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level." That's not a promise, mind you. It's more like a strong hint, the kind your friend gives you when they say they might be free for dinner but they'll let you know. But traders took it to heart. The probability of a September rate hike, as priced by futures, dropped to roughly 50%, down from about 70% earlier in the week.
That was enough to spark a relief rally across the board. The most rate-sensitive corners of the market, software, small caps, and anything crypto-linked, led the charge. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note eased to 4.75%, down 4 basis points, after touching 4.81% earlier in the week, its highest level since October 2023. The 2-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.34%, and the 30-year held at 5.23%, down 3 basis points.
The dollar index slid to 99, a near two-week low, with the greenback dropping 2.1% against the yen after a potential new intervention from Tokyo. And that dollar weakness? It lit a fire under Bitcoin, which surged 4.6% to about $80,900. The whole crypto complex went along for the ride.
Let's look at the numbers. The S&P 500 rose 0.96% to 7,740.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed with a 1.1% advance, adding 597 points to 53,658.71. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.0% to 29,439.78. Within the Magnificent Seven, Tesla jumped 7.4%, Meta Platforms added 3.8%, Microsoft rose 3.3%, and Alphabet gained 1.7%.
The economic data was constructive too. The ISM Services PMI jumped to 55.4 in August from 54.1, beating the 54.3 consensus and marking the strongest services expansion in six months. But here's the catch: the prices-paid subindex spiked to a four-year high of 72.6. That's the kind of thing that makes the Fed nervous, but for now, the market chose to focus on the good news.
Gold pushed toward the $4,500 handle, rising 2.4% to $4,492 an ounce as the dollar and real yields retreated. Shiny things are fun.
Thursday's Performance In Major US Indices
| Index | Last | % Change | MTD | YTD |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,740.14 | +0.96% | +0.7% | +13.1% |
| Dow Jones | 53,658.71 | +1.12% | +0.9% | +11.6% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,439.78 | +1.02% | -0.1% | +16.6% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,965.05 | +0.40% | +0.3% | +19.5% |
Updated by 12:20 p.m. ET
Looking at the ETFs that track these indices, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF gained 0.9%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust rose 1.2%, the Invesco QQQ Trust climbed 1.0%, and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF added 0.4%. Nothing too surprising there.
Crypto Complex Rips As Hike Fears Fade and Food Stocks Get Crushed
Let's talk sector action. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund led all sectors with a 1.8% gain, powered by Tesla. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund rose 1.2%, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund added 1.2%. On the flip side, the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund was the sole meaningful decliner, off 0.6%. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund was down 0.2%, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund off 0.1%, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund flat as crude's advance stalled.
At the industry level, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF surged 3.1% on bullion's move toward $4,500. The First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund rallied 2.5%, and the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF rose 1.8%. The VanEck Agribusiness ETF was the weakest industry group, down 1.1%.
Software was the epicenter of the rally. Snowflake soared 21.9% after Wednesday's post-close print showed fiscal second-quarter product revenue of $1.49 billion, up 37% year-over-year. Third-quarter product revenue is guided to $1.59 billion against a $1.50 billion consensus. Management also lifted its full-year product revenue forecast to $6.07 billion from $5.84 billion in May and raised its adjusted operating margin target to 14.5% from 13.5%. That's the kind of beat that makes everyone else in the sector look good.
The read-through was immediate across enterprise software. Palantir Technologies jumped 8.3%, Dell Technologies gained 6.9%, ServiceNow rose 6.0%, Oracle added 5.3%, and CrowdStrike Holdings climbed 4.5%. It was a party, and everyone was invited.
Crypto-levered equities were the day's other standout. Robinhood Markets rallied 14.9%, and Circle Internet Group gained 14.9% back toward $100. Neither name had company-specific news in the tape; both moves track bitcoin's 4.6% advance and the softer dollar. Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, rose 13.7% on the same mark-to-market impulse, with no fresh disclosure of its own. Peers Coinbase Global and Bullish gained 10.8% and 12.6%, respectively.
Summit Therapeutics surged 14.5% after partner Akeso said the Phase 3 HARMONi-2 trial met its prespecified interim overall survival endpoint. Ivonescimab monotherapy delivered a statistically significant survival advantage over Merck's Keytruda in PD-L1-positive advanced non-small cell lung cancer. Merck slipped 0.9% on the news. Ouch.
But not everything was sunshine and roses. Semiconductors were the drag. Broadcom fell 4.1% despite posting 221% annual revenue growth in its latest fiscal quarter. The print failed to clear the high end of buy-side expectations. Micron Technology lost 1.2%, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise dropped 4.5% after its results fell short. Elsewhere in AI, Nvidia agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $13 billion in a bet on open-source models. That's a big bet, but Nvidia can afford it.
Ciena was the worst genuine decliner in the Russell 1000, sliding 10.4% despite what management called its strongest quarter on record. Fiscal third-quarter revenue was $1.67 billion, and adjusted EPS was $2.11, up 215% year-over-year. Backlog was up $800 million sequentially to $8.5 billion. So why the drop? Investors instead fixed on supply constraints, a one-time tariff-refund benefit to margins, and a stock that had already run hard into the print. Sometimes good news just isn't good enough.
Packaged food was routed. The Campbell's Company tumbled 9.7% after guiding fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS to $1.65-$1.80 against a $1.90 consensus. They also cut their quarterly dividend 36% to $0.25 from $0.39 and missed on fourth-quarter revenue at $2.1 billion versus $2.15 billion expected. That's a triple whammy.
Tyson Foods fell 6.9% after cutting fiscal 2026 adjusted operating income guidance to $1.85-$2.05 billion from $2.1-$2.3 billion, blaming margin compression from volatile cattle prices. The damage spread to General Mills, down 4.6%, and The Kraft Heinz Company, off 3.3%. When the big guys sneeze, the whole aisle catches a cold.
The Toro Company dropped 6.9% even after beating on both lines. Fiscal third-quarter adjusted EPS was $1.33 versus a $1.30 consensus, on revenue of $1.23 billion against $1.19 billion. They even raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $4.60-$4.65 from $4.50-$4.62. But the market focused on Professional-segment margin pressure, a higher tax rate, and the narrow upside embedded in the revised outlook. Again, good news, but not good enough.
Planet Labs fell 8.3% with results not due until after Thursday's close and no confirmed company news in the tape. The move reads as pre-print positioning, with some rotation toward newly listed Space Exploration Technologies Corp., which rose 5.7% on nearly 60 million shares. Sometimes stocks move just because.
Thursday's Russell 1000 Top Gainers
| Name | % change |
|---|
| Snowflake Inc. | +21.91% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc. | +14.92% |
| Circle Internet Group, Inc. | +14.85% |
| Summit Therapeutics Inc. | +14.47% |
| Strategy Inc | +13.66% |
Thursday's Russell 1000 Top Losers
| Name | % change |
|---|
| Ciena Corporation | -10.39% |
| The Campbell's Company | -9.74% |
| Planet Labs PBC | -8.32% |
| Tyson Foods, Inc. | -6.89% |
| The Toro Company | -6.85% |
So there you have it. A day where the Fed's whisper was enough to send stocks higher, bitcoin above $80,000, and gold toward $4,500. But it wasn't all smooth sailing. Some stocks fell despite good earnings, and food companies are feeling the pinch. It's a market that's hungry for good news, but it's also picky about what it eats.
