There's a quiet but intriguing development in the world of thematic ETFs: a photonics-focused fund has quietly become a significant holder of Anthropic, the private AI powerhouse. And the timing couldn't be more interesting, with reports swirling that Anthropic might go public at a valuation north of $2 trillion.
The Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (LAZR) now allocates 15% of its assets to Anthropic, held through a special purpose vehicle. What's particularly noteworthy is the price at which most of that stake was acquired. While the fund first dipped its toes into Anthropic in July at a $1.8 trillion valuation, that initial purchase was tiny. The real money came later, at a much more attractive price.
Maurits Pot, founder of Tema ETFs, broke it down in a conversation with MarketDash: the first buy was only about $2 million at the $1.8 trillion mark, but the fund then added more than $11 million worth of exposure at a $1.39 trillion valuation. That's a significant difference in entry points.
"The initial exposure was purchased at $1.8T, this latest exposure at $1.39T and the full exposure in LAZR is now held at $1.39T," Pot explained.
So why does this matter? Because if Anthropic does pursue an IPO at a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, as reports suggest, it would shatter records as the largest IPO by initial valuation, surpassing even SpaceX. But for LAZR investors, the more relevant number is the $1.39 trillion cost basis for the bulk of the position.
Entry Point vs. Current Valuation
The differing entry points are crucial context for anyone looking at LAZR's holdings. On paper, you might see Anthropic's valuation swing from $1.8 trillion to $1.39 trillion and worry about a paper loss. But that's not the full picture.
"Only $2 million was purchased at $1.8 trillion and (more than) $11 million at $1.4 trillion, so the majority of the position is simply held at cost," Pot said.
In other words, the gap between those two valuation marks shouldn't be read as a significant unrealized loss for LAZR. The fund's average cost is much closer to the lower figure, so the reported $1.39 trillion valuation is actually in line with where most of the position sits.
Tema declined to provide its own fair-market valuation for Anthropic, but Pot acknowledged that the firm is aware of third-party expectations above $2 trillion. That's a wide gap between the cost basis and the potential public market value, and it's exactly the kind of setup that could create a nice pop if things go well.
Potential IPO Creates a Key Catalyst
The rumored $2 trillion-plus IPO valuation is a potential game-changer for LAZR. If Anthropic lists at a price that implies a valuation materially above the $1.39 trillion level at which most of the fund's position was acquired, that private holding could see a substantial mark-up.
Of course, the actual impact on LAZR will depend on the IPO price, how the stock performs in the aftermarket, and when the ETF can actually sell its shares. But Pot is straightforward about the potential benefit: LAZR shareholders would gain from "any price uplift in Anthropic at date of IPO."
There's also a structural nuance worth noting. After an IPO, the ETF itself would be subject to standard S-1 lockup restrictions, meaning it can't just dump its shares immediately. But individual LAZR investors aren't in the same boat.
"ETF investors will not be subject to any S-1 lockups themselves," Pot said.
That's a meaningful distinction. If you hold Anthropic directly (assuming you could), you'd be locked up for a period post-IPO. But if you hold LAZR, you can buy or sell the ETF whenever you want, without being personally restricted. That flexibility could become increasingly valuable if Anthropic goes public and the stock starts moving.
A 15% Private AI Bet Inside a Photonics ETF
It's worth stepping back to appreciate how unusual this position is. A photonics ETF holding a massive stake in a private AI company isn't exactly par for the course. But Tema's thesis is that Anthropic's explosive growth in AI infrastructure will drive demand for optical networking and other photonics technologies. By holding Anthropic directly, LAZR gets exposure to both the AI giant and the ecosystem that supports it.
With most of its Anthropic position acquired at $1.39 trillion and third-party valuations now pointing above $2 trillion, LAZR has set itself up for a potential repricing of one of the most valuable private companies in the world. The big question is whether Anthropic can live up to those lofty expectations in the public markets, and how much of that upside LAZR can actually capture.
For now, it's a fascinating bet that blends private equity-style risk with the liquidity of an ETF. And if the IPO rumors prove true, LAZR investors could be in for an interesting ride.
