SpaceX stock had a month. August saw shares of the rocket-and-AI company climb 32% from their lows, clawing back a chunk of the ground lost during its rocky post-IPO summer. The stock ended the month at $143.49, up from lows near $108 in early August, according to market data. That move added an estimated $450-$500 billion in market value, though the stock still sits roughly $1 trillion below its $2.9 trillion peak hit on June 16, just days after its record-setting $75 billion IPO.
The turnaround can be traced to Aug. 6, when the first post-IPO lock-up expiry freed roughly 911 million shares, about 7% of shares outstanding, for trading. Investors had been bracing for a downturn, but instead of a sell-off, the stock soared 35% in five sessions, adding roughly $500 billion in market cap. It was a classic case of the opposite of what everyone expected happening.
Earnings Beat, AI Jitters
The rally got an early boost from SpaceX's second-quarter earnings release on Aug. 4. Revenue jumped 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, beating estimates, even as investors fretted over AI-segment spending. The initial after-hours reaction was a stumble, but the market quickly came around.
Argus Research upgraded shares to Buy from Hold on Aug. 7 with a $160 price target, saying not to “bet against Musk,” per CNBC. That sentiment seemed to resonate.
Then came the big reveal: NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) disclosed a 122.8 million-share stake in SpaceX worth roughly $21 billion. That lent AI-infrastructure credibility to the rally. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), Harvard University, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also disclosed large stakes, adding to the buzz.
Morgan Stanley reiterated an overweight rating and $300 price target on Aug. 26, tied to SpaceX's $100 billion Louisiana spaceport plan. Analyst Adam Jonas wrote that “the implied valuation for SpaceX's AI business at the current price is, in our opinion, extremely conservative.”
Not everyone's convinced the rally has legs. SPCX trades at roughly 66 times sales, a steep multiple even for a company growing revenue near triple digits. That's a lot of optimism baked into the price.
What's Next: More Unlocks Ahead
Wall Street's average price target sits near $226, implying more upside, but after a month this volatile, traders are bracing for the next lock-up test in September. More share unlocks are already on the calendar: roughly 319 million additional shares became eligible for trading on Aug. 20, with another 700 million or so slated for release each month through October.
How SPCX absorbs that fresh supply may determine whether August's comeback turns into a durable trend or just another swing in a stock that's already lived several lifetimes since its June debut. The next few months will be telling.
