If you've been watching the crypto market this week, you know Bitcoin has been on a tear. On Thursday, the world's largest cryptocurrency finally broke past the $80,000 level, and that sent shares of Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) soaring more than 10%. Why? Because Strategy is essentially a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, thanks to its massive corporate treasury holdings of the digital asset.
The broader market also had a good day, with the Nasdaq up 0.84% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.49%, but Strategy was the standout performer.
Interestingly, this surge comes just a day after Bernstein cut its price target on Strategy from $450 to $350. The firm maintained an Outperform rating, but the reduction reflects an updated Bitcoin cycle timeline and faster-than-expected equity dilution from share sales. So, even with a lower target, the stock is still seen as a buy.
Long-Term Outlook for Sovereign Debt and Bitcoin
Bernstein's long-term view on Bitcoin remains incredibly bullish. The firm has set a $500,000 bull case for Bitcoin by 2029, driven by currency debasement and rising national debt. In a note cited by The Block, analysts stated that "the 40-year era of falling interest rates is over." That's a big deal, because it suggests a fundamental shift in the macroeconomic environment that could favor hard assets like Bitcoin.
Strategy holds a staggering 840,447 Bitcoin, which represents roughly 4% of the total supply. That's a huge bet, and it's one that seems to be paying off as Bitcoin climbs. VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, noted on X that 59% of Bitcoin's supply has remained unmoved through a 50% drawdown, indicating strong holder conviction.
Technical Analysis
Let's look at the charts. MSTR is now trading 32% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $104.83 and 38.4% above its 50-day SMA of $100.04. That tells you the near-term trend has turned sharply higher. It's also 8.6% above the 100-day SMA ($127.48), but still trading 2.2% below the 200-day SMA ($141.60). So, the longer-term trend line is the next "prove it" area for the stock.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 73.11, which puts the stock in overbought territory. Think of RSI as a speedometer for price—when it's this high, it often means upside can continue, but pullbacks and choppy consolidation become more likely. So, while the momentum is strong, don't be surprised if we see some profit-taking soon.
The bigger-picture trend is still trying to repair itself after the death cross in October 2025, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. That's consistent with the 12-month performance of -59.50%, even as the current rally attempts to rebuild a base off the June low.
Here are the key levels to watch:
- Key Resistance: $149.50 — a nearby overhead area that lines up with the stock's attempt to reclaim the longer-term trend zone near the 200-day averages.
- Key Support: $118.50 — a prior buyer-defense area that sits closer to the stock's recent uptrend structure and potential pullback zone.
MSTR Price Action: Strategy shares were up 11.81% at $137.73 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to market data.
