It's that time again. NVIDIA (NVDA) is about to drop its quarterly numbers, and the market is holding its breath. Shares ticked up about 0.4% in Wednesday's premarket trading as investors positioned for the chipmaker's fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings, due after the closing bell.
Here's what Wall Street is looking for: earnings of $2.09 per share, up from $1.04 a year ago, and revenue projected to nearly double to $92.03 billion from $46.74 billion. Those are staggering numbers, but for NVIDIA, they're almost routine at this point.
The broader market wasn't offering much support ahead of the open. Nasdaq futures slipped 0.06%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.02%. But NVIDIA shares were hovering near key technical levels, and the earnings report could test the stock's longer-term uptrend.
There's a sense that this earnings season might be different, though. Alli McCartney, Managing Director at UBS Private Wealth Management, told CNBC that the enthusiasm around NVIDIA has been a big driver of the broader market rebound. But traders seem to be bracing for a more subdued reaction this quarter. NVIDIA's options market is pricing in its smallest earnings-related move in eight quarters. McCartney noted that aligns with UBS's expectations for less dramatic changes in the company's results, growth, and forward estimates than in previous quarters.
Technical Analysis
Let's talk charts. NVIDIA is trading about 0.4% below its 20-day simple moving average of $214.58. A move above that level could strengthen the near-term trend. Fail to reclaim it, and the stock might stay range-bound for a while.
But zoom out, and the picture is still bullish. NVIDIA sits 2.8% above its 50-day SMA of $207.81 and 9.3% above its 200-day SMA of $195.43. The moving averages themselves are in a bullish alignment: the 20-day is above the 50-day, which is above the 200-day. That's the kind of structure trend followers like to see.
The relative strength index is at 49.58, a neutral reading that suggests neither buyers nor sellers have a clear edge right now. Key resistance is near $214, right around that 20-day average. Support is down near $190, below the 200-day average.
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street is still firmly in NVIDIA's corner. The stock has a consensus Buy rating and an average price target of $328.79. Raymond James raised its price target to $352 on Tuesday, maintaining a Strong Buy. Rosenblatt reiterated a Buy and a $325 target on Monday. KeyBanc kept an Overweight rating and a $330 target the same day.
But here's the catch: the stock trades at about 32.6 times earnings. That's a rich multiple, reflecting sky-high expectations. It also means there's not much room for disappointment.
MarketDash Edge Rankings
Our scorecard gives NVIDIA a momentum score of 56.33, which points to consolidation rather than strong acceleration. The company scores 97.61 for quality and 99.23 for growth, but its value score is just 5.91. In other words, you're paying top dollar for quality and growth, and the valuation leaves little margin for error.
Top ETF Exposure
NVIDIA is a heavyweight in several ETFs. It makes up 9.79% of the First Trust Innovation Leaders ETF (ILDR), 9.73% of the Franklin Focused Dynamic Growth ETF (FFOG), and 9.60% of the Sapient Quality Select ETF (SQS). That heavy exposure means fund inflows or outflows could drive additional buying or selling in NVIDIA shares, adding another layer of volatility around earnings.
Price Action
As of Wednesday's premarket, NVIDIA shares were up 0.37% to $213.84. The real action comes after the bell.
