Medicare's financial clock is ticking, and the person in charge of the program says he has a plan to stop it. But it involves a lot of moving parts, from cracking down on fraud to letting artificial intelligence do some of the paperwork.
CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz sat down with CBS News' Margaret Brennan on "Face the Nation" Sunday to talk about the program's future. Brennan didn't mince words, citing projections that the Medicare trust fund could go broke in seven years, which would mean an 11% cut in payments. She wanted to know what the administration was actually doing about it, beyond the usual talk of fighting fraud, waste, and abuse.
Oz's answer? A legislative push called the Great American Health Act, which would lock in most-favored-nation drug pricing. But he also made a bold promise: if Medicare fraud were eliminated, the trust fund "will last twice as long."
"It'll last twice as long. Think about that. Twice as many years of benefits if we just take the fraud out of Medicare," Oz said.
He pointed to a $42 billion reduction in Medicare fraud over the past year, achieved by "never leaving the money out of the door." But he admitted the administration hasn't hit "full speed" yet on fraud prevention. "The fraud doesn't just steal money. It steals our trust," he added, noting that some states aren't cooperating as closely as they could.
This isn't just talk. CMS has been digging into potentially improper enrollments, estimating that roughly 35% of Marketplace sign-ups might be illegitimate. A federal report flagged 2.6 million improper or phantom enrollments. The HHS Office of Inspector General projects $5.56 billion in recoveries and savings over six months, including $674 million in settlements with affiliates of Kaiser Permanente and CVS Health's Aetna over inflated Medicare Advantage billing.
Drug Prices Take Center Stage
Beyond fraud, Oz is betting big on drug pricing. He says 17 pharmaceutical companies, representing 85% of the drug sector, have agreed to most-favored-nation pricing. That means Medicare pays no more than the lowest price offered to other countries.
"What we want is better prices for the American people. And we got it," Oz said.
He highlighted a concrete example: eligible Medicare beneficiaries can now get some GLP-1 medications for $50 a month, down from over $1,000. That's a game-changer for weight loss, blood pressure, and diabetes management, which could also cut downstream costs. "$50 a month means you can do something to help yourself lose weight, reduce blood pressure, reduce diabetes, and all the downstream costs that would have been incurred no longer happen," he explained.
And it's not just existing drugs. Oz said all new drugs released by large pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. will be subject to most-favored-nation pricing.
The administration is also ending the Medicare Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after 2026, saying it's no longer needed. Officials project most beneficiaries will see flat premiums or increases of less than $10 in 2027.
AI Could Drive Bigger Savings
Brennan pushed back, asking whether fraud reduction alone can fix the broader financing problem. Oz pivoted to technology, calling it an even bigger opportunity.
"Without question, what's even bigger is an opportunity to save us money is the use of technology including artificial intelligence," he said.
He noted that 50% of doctors now use AI to cut administrative work and help advise patients. CMS has a health tech ecosystem led by Amy Gleason, which Oz says has been "massively effective in recruiting," with 800 companies pledging to participate.
Access to medical records is also expanding. "Last year when I would sit here with you, 5% of Americans had access to their medical records so they could use them wherever they wanted," Oz said. "Today, it's over 50%." Providers are now required to give patients access, which Oz says is "dramatically changing how information flows to the system."
The numbers behind the urgency are stark. The Medicare Part A Hospital Insurance trust fund is projected to be depleted in 2033, though Medicare would still operate with incoming revenue covering about 89% of scheduled Part A expenses. Part B spending is projected to grow 8.5% annually through 2030, and Part D spending may rise 9.4% annually.
Oz insists the administration will use every tool available, from negotiations to fraud enforcement to drug-price reforms and technology. "I want to point out that drug prices and affordability are bipartisan beneficial issues," he said. "We want to use every tool we have in our toolkit to get there."
Whether that's enough to double Medicare's lifespan remains to be seen, but Oz is clearly betting that a combination of cutting waste, reining in drug costs, and letting AI do the heavy lifting can keep the program afloat.