MP Materials Corp. (MP (MP)) had a big Friday. Shares climbed more than 9% as critical minerals stocks rallied and the Materials sector led the broader market higher. For context, the Nasdaq gained 0.31% and the S&P 500 rose 0.42%. So MP was clearly the star of the show.
What's driving the move? According to market data, critical metals stocks traded higher after the U.S. Department of Energy recently selected seven projects aimed at expanding critical mineral processing, battery manufacturing, and recycling capacity. This funding round aligns with President Donald Trump's "Unleashing American Energy" executive order. Washington is clearly trying to strengthen domestic critical mineral supply chains, and MP Materials is right in the middle of that story.
MP Materials is a big deal in the rare earth world. It operates the Mountain Pass facility, which is the only rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America. So when the government starts throwing money at critical minerals, MP is one of the first names investors think of.
Technical Analysis
From a chart perspective, things are looking better. MP moved above its 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages, and it's also trading well above its 20-day and 50-day averages. That's a good sign for the short-term trend.
Momentum indicators are also improving. The MACD is above its signal line, and the histogram remains positive. That suggests buying pressure is strengthening. But here's the catch: the longer-term trend is still recovering. The stock formed a "death cross" in July when its 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day average. That's a bearish signal, and it's going to take some time to undo.
MP has rebounded from its July low, and its 52-week range is $37.81 to $100.25. Right now, resistance sits near $61, while support is around $53.50. Holding above those longer-term moving averages could be important for sustaining the breakout. If the stock can stay above them, it might have more room to run.
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street is still pretty bullish on MP. The stock carries a Buy consensus rating with an average price forecast of $71.79. That's a decent upside from current levels.
But it's worth noting that some analysts have trimmed their price targets recently. JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating but lowered its price forecast to $60 on July 29. Needham maintained a Buy rating and cut its forecast to $73 on July 22. Barclays maintained an Overweight rating and lowered its forecast to $65 on July 16. So while the sentiment is positive, the targets are coming down a bit.
Momentum Score
According to the MarketDash Edge scorecard, the stock has a momentum score of 11.62, which indicates weakness compared with the broader market. That might seem odd given Friday's rally, but the score reflects longer-term momentum. The stock is still in recovery mode, and investors will be watching whether it can hold its recent breakout and build on the move.
Top ETF Exposure
If you're not interested in picking individual stocks, you can get exposure to MP through a few ETFs. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX (REMX)) has a 6.27% weighting in MP, and the Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM (SETM)) has a 3.19% weighting. ETF inflows and outflows can create additional buying or selling pressure in heavily weighted holdings, so it's something to keep an eye on.
Price Action
At the time of publication Friday, MP Materials shares were up 9.3% at $60.16, according to market data. That's a strong move, and it'll be interesting to see if the stock can hold onto those gains into the close.
