Another one bites the dust. Karoline Leavitt, the White House Press Secretary, is the latest to leave the Trump administration, following a wave of departures that includes Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Joe Kent. She's set to exit at the end of August to focus on her young family, though she'll stay on as an outside adviser and Republican voice ahead of the midterms.

With all these exits, the natural question is: who's next? And thanks to prediction markets, we can actually put a number on it.

The Odds Are In

Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, has a contract up: "Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?" Over $7.2 million has already been wagered on it. The current front-runner is Amy Gleason, who served as acting administrator of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), with a 44% probability of being the next to go.

Right behind her is Susie Wiles, the White House Chief of Staff, at 34% (up by 95 points). Howard Lutnick, the Secretary of Commerce, is close third with 31%.

Kash Patel Rumors Cool Off

Remember all that chatter about Kash Patel, the FBI director, being on the outs? Reports had Trump unhappy with him, but those rumors have simmered down. The probability of Patel leaving has dropped to 23% as the year winds down.

Disclaimer: Kalshi and MarketDash have an existing data collaboration agreement. This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by MarketDash editors.