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The stock market's winning streak hit a speed bump on Wednesday, but the crowd on Polymarket isn't worried. Despite the S&P 500 snapping a four-session run of gains, traders are betting the benchmark index will bounce back at Thursday's open.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.17% to close at 7,723.55, after opening at 7,771.62. The Aug. 6 Polymarket contract implied a 69% probability that the index would open higher on Thursday, though sentiment stayed choppy throughout the session.
Wednesday's modest decline interrupted a four-day winning streak for the S&P 500, which had briefly touched a fresh record high earlier in the day. The pullback came even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its fifth straight gain and another all-time closing high. That divergence highlights a rotation beneath the market's surface rather than broad-based weakness.
The latest Polymarket contract attracted roughly $50,500 in trading volume, a notable pickup from Tuesday's relatively quiet activity. It seems traders got more engaged once the S&P 500 paused its record-setting rally.
Investors are finding support in resilient corporate earnings and easing geopolitical risks.
The Dow extended its record run after Nvidia (NVDA) gained more than 3%, helped by comments from Elon Musk that SpaceX (SPCX) plans to use Nvidia processors exclusively for its AI infrastructure. Optimism also got a boost from hopes that negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil prices contained after recent declines.
Looking ahead, markets will be watching weekly jobless claims on Thursday, ahead of Friday's closely watched July nonfarm payrolls report. Another wave of earnings could also shape expectations for the broader economy and corporate spending: Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) reports before the open, while Airbnb (BNB) and Lyft (LYFT) follow after the close.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.08% early Thursday, suggesting the market is leaning toward a positive open.
The Aug. 5 Polymarket contract drew about $50,514 in trading volume after sentiment strengthened following the market's record-setting run earlier this week. The S&P 500 opened at 7,771.62, above Tuesday's close of 7,736.52, meaning the contract ultimately resolved "Up."
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