SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings Wednesday after the close, and options markets are pricing an unusually large move for the S&P 500's best-performing stock of the year.
According to MarketDash data, the implied earnings move stands near 16% in either direction.
From Tuesday's $1,427 close, that translates into a potential move toward roughly $1,655 on the upside or $1,199 on the downside.
That's about a $228 swing either way.
Historical track records show that SanDisk stock has almost always reacted positively to earnings, but the moves have been far smaller than what options are pricing in for Q4.
Wall Street Expects An Extraordinary Earnings Explosion
I had to look twice at Wall Street's expectations for SanDisk's quarter.
Analysts expect earnings of $34.96 per share, compared with just $0.29 in the same quarter last year.
That would represent an increase of nearly 120 times, or roughly 11,955%.
Revenue is expected at $8.48 billion, versus roughly $1.9 billion a year earlier. That would represent growth of about 346%, or more than four times last year's level.
Those numbers capture just how dramatically the NAND memory cycle has tightened in recent months.
But they also create an unusual earnings setup.
A huge beat may no longer be enough to surprise investors.
SanDisk Earnings May Come Down To One Number
Tessara Research sees gross margin, rather than revenue, as the key variable separating a routine beat from another major upside surprise.
SanDisk guided fiscal fourth-quarter revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, already below Wall Street's expectations.
Its non-GAAP gross-margin outlook was 79%–81%.
Tessara Research expects gross margin to exceed the 81% upper end of that range, assigning a 75% probability to that outcome. Its central case sees margin reaching roughly 84%.
SanDisk already demonstrated last quarter how quickly NAND pricing can flow through the income statement.
Fiscal third-quarter gross margin reached 78.4% after management had initially guided to just 65%–67%.
The research firm said management previously indicated that it "pays to be a bit conservative" in a rapidly changing market.
There is another clue.
Kioxia, which jointly operates Japanese NAND manufacturing facilities with SanDisk, reported roughly 80% gross margin for the same April-to-June period as blended prices rose about 70%, according to Tessara.
If SanDisk captured enough of that pricing improvement, margins could again outrun its own guidance.
History Favors Bulls, But Nothing Close to What Options Traders Are Pricing Today
SanDisk shares rose the day after earnings in five of the past six quarters, an 83% positive hit rate. The average one-day move was 5.76%, with a median gain of 5.84%.
The largest move was a 15.31% rally in November 2025. The only negative reaction was a 4.58% decline in August 2025.
Interestingly, bigger earnings beats haven't always produced bigger stock moves.
In May, SanDisk reported earnings of $23.41 per share versus $14.62 expected, a 60.1% beat. Shares rose 8.25% the following session.
In January, earnings beat estimates by 71.4%, while the stock gained 6.85%. The most extreme surprise came last August, when earnings of $0.29 crushed the $0.05 estimate by more than 500% — yet shares fell 4.58%.
That makes Wednesday's setup unusual.
The 16% implied move is nearly three times SanDisk's average post-earnings reaction and would exceed every one-day earnings move in the company's recent history.
| Earnings Date | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | EPS Surprise | Revenue | 1-Day Move |
|---|
| May 1, 2026 | $23.41 | $14.62 | +60.09% | $5.95B | +8.25% |
| Jan. 30, 2026 | $6.20 | $3.62 | +71.43% | $3.03B | +6.85% |
| Nov. 7, 2025 | $1.22 | $0.88 | +38.14% | $2.31B | +15.31% |
| Aug. 15, 2025 | $0.29 | $0.05 | +522.16% | $1.90B | -4.58% |
| May 8, 2025 | -$0.30 | -$0.38 | +21.30% | $1.70B | +4.83% |
| March 10, 2025 | $1.23 | $1.22 | +1.10% | $1.88B | +3.92% |
| Historical Average | — | — | — | — | +5.76% |
| Current Options-Implied Move | — | — | — | — | ±16.00% |
