Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) is set to report its fiscal third-quarter earnings Wednesday before the market opens, and investors are hoping for a bit of good news after a rough stretch. The stock has been sliding, analysts are slashing price targets, and the company is dealing with everything from box office disappointments to a very public spat with the FCC. But here's the thing: a lot of the bad news might already be priced in, and there's a potential blockbuster on the horizon that could change the narrative.

What Wall Street Expects

Analysts are looking for revenue of $25.40 billion, up from $23.65 billion in the same quarter last year, according to data from MarketDash. The company has beaten revenue estimates in two straight quarters and in six of the last ten. On the earnings front, the consensus is for $1.86 per share, up from $1.61 a year ago. Disney has a solid track record here, beating EPS estimates for 12 consecutive quarters.

But beating estimates might not be enough to lift the stock if the company's guidance or commentary disappoints. Investors have been in a pessimistic mood, and the stock is hovering near its 52-week low.

Analyst Views: A Mixed Bag

Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall recently made waves by suggesting that Disney could boost its share price by 40% if it exited the streaming business entirely. He maintained an Overweight rating but cut his price target from $146 to $125. Cahall argues that Disney should return to its old model of producing content rather than distributing it, focusing on licensing and content creation, which are its core strengths.

"We lay out the case for DIS to return to its old biz model of producing versus distributing," Cahall said. He estimates Disney could generate around $4 billion annually from global licensing rights alone, plus $15 billion or more from its content library. Together, that would be a better cash generator than its direct-to-consumer business.

Other analysts have also trimmed their price targets, though most remain positive:

• Citigroup: Maintained Buy, lowered target from $145 to $135
• UBS: Maintained Buy, lowered target from $138 to $133
• Barclays: Maintained Overweight, lowered target from $135 to $110
• Benchmark: Initiated with Buy, target $115

The trend is clear: analysts are getting less optimistic, but they're not abandoning ship. The stock is down over 17% in the past year, and it's approaching levels that could attract value investors if the company shows any signs of a turnaround.

What to Watch: Box Office and Beyond

The box office has been a mixed bag for Disney this year. "Toy Story 5" was a massive hit, grossing over $1 billion globally and ranking as the top domestic film of the year. But "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" underperformed, with $177.7 million domestically and $345.1 million worldwide, one of the lowest totals in Star Wars history. Still, it's the 10th highest-grossing domestic film of the year. "The Devil Wears Prada 2" sits at eighth with $220.6 million domestically.

These three films, all released in May and June, will be compared to last year's "Lilo & Stitch," which grossed $423.8 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. The current trio should come in higher than last year's comparable period, which could provide some upside, depending on the cost of the Star Wars film.

But the real excitement could come from commentary on "Spider-Man: Brand New Day." The film is from Sony, but Disney gets a cut of the revenue, and its record-breaking performance could set the stage for "Avengers: Doomsday," which hits theaters on Dec. 18. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" took in $16.5 million on its first day alone, according to Variety. For context, "Avengers: Endgame" (2019) grossed $858.4 million domestically and $2.80 billion worldwide, ranking second all-time in both categories. Avengers films have consistently been among Marvel's best performers, and "Doomsday" could be the spark Disney's stock needs. Expect Disney to talk up its upcoming slate.

Another topic that might come up, though not in a good way, is politics. Disney recently issued a 109-page letter alleging that the FCC has launched a "retaliation" campaign against the company on behalf of President Donald Trump. The FCC has targeted "The View" for not following political guest rules, and Disney's decision not to air a Trump speech on ABC led to a public callout by the president. This could threaten TV licenses for several Disney-owned channels, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Investors will also be watching the networks and DTC segments for advertising revenue strength and Disney+ performance. Another weak quarter in those areas could reignite calls for Disney to spin off or split up units to unlock shareholder value.

Stock Price Action

Disney stock is up 0.29% to $98.43 on Tuesday, within a 52-week range of $92.19 to $119.78. The stock is down 12.1% year-to-date in 2026 and down over 17% in the last 52 weeks. With the stock near its lows, the market has already priced in a lot of negativity. If Disney can deliver a solid quarter and offer some encouraging words about "Doomsday," the stock could finally catch a bid.