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Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) has agreed to pay $35,000 to settle charges from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), closing a saga that began with a bet on his own attendance at the State of the Union address.
Santos wagered on Kalshi whether he would show up for President Donald Trump's February speech, and he kept his followers updated on his plans via social media. When a canceled flight grounded him, he flipped his position and walked away with more than $17,500 in profits.
Under the settlement, Santos will give up those winnings, pay an additional $17,500 fine, and accept a three-year ban from trading on CFTC-regulated markets.
Kalshi's head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, said the platform flagged the trades to regulators. "Kalshi will also pursue its own enforcement action for violating exchange rules, and if monetary penalties are recovered, we'll work to reimburse affected traders," he said in a statement.
MarketDash's Take: This case underscores how regulators are zeroing in on prediction markets as retail trading volume surges.
Santos was expelled from Congress in 2023 and later convicted of wire fraud and identity theft. In October 2025, President Trump commuted his seven-year prison sentence, citing what he called mistreatment during Santos's confinement, and ordered his immediate release.
The Santos case is just one of several headaches for Kalshi this year. New York sued the platform in July, seeking a shutdown and damages that one attorney estimated at nearly $36 billion. A Nevada judge blocked its sports and election contracts in April, calling them illegal gambling, while Kalshi and the CFTC sued Minnesota over a similar criminalization law.
Separately, in February, Kalshi banned a video editor for American YouTuber MrBeast over insider trading.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by MarketDash editors.
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