Microsoft Corporation (Microsoft (MSFT)) is one of the Magnificent Seven stocks reporting financial results this week, with fourth-quarter earnings coming Wednesday after market close. The company has a remarkable track record: it has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in 13 straight quarters and for earnings per share in 15 straight quarters. Investors are wondering if the streak continues.

Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying, and key items to watch.

Microsoft Q4 Earnings Estimates

Analysts expect the company to report revenue of $87.61 billion and earnings per share of $4.23, up from $76.44 billion and $3.65 a year ago, according to data from MarketDash.

The company has consistently outperformed expectations, and this quarter is no different in terms of high hopes.

What Analysts Are Saying

Citizens analyst Patrick Walravens maintains a Market Outperform rating and $550 price target. He notes that a recent letter on open weights and AI leadership in America could be drawing battle lines in the AI sector.

"While investors have concerns about competition from the frontier models, seat-based licenses, and the extent of capital expenditure in the next year, we continue to like the stock for several reasons," Walravens said.

Walravens highlights that CEO Satya Nadella has a differentiated vision of AI sovereignty, the company is building an end-to-end AI tech stack, and its total addressable market could be $5.1 trillion by 2030. "Microsoft continues to have a very attractive financial profile, with revenue growth accelerating to 17% in FY26, from 15% in FY25," he added. The analyst likes the "steady leadership" of Nadella and believes the stock is justified at a premium to its peer group.

Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci sees Microsoft meeting estimates for Q4 but flags some risk with the Windows business. "Most of the upside we expect for both upcoming quarters resides in Productivity and Business Processes and Intelligent Cloud," DiFucci said. He maintains a Buy rating and $586 price target, highlighting Azure growth of 39% to 40% year-over-year.

Key Items to Watch

In the third quarter, Microsoft posted a double beat with overall revenue growth of 18% year-over-year. Intelligent Cloud grew 30%, Productivity and Business Processes grew 17%, and overall Microsoft Cloud revenue was up 29%. Azure and other cloud services revenue jumped 40% year-over-year. The company also highlighted its AI business hitting an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion.

This quarter, analysts and investors will focus on cloud revenue, the AI annual revenue run rate, and capital expenditure. Microsoft's capex is one of the most-watched figures, as it signals the company's commitment to AI infrastructure.

Microsoft is one of four Magnificent Seven stocks reporting this week, and its results could have a big impact on major market indexes and sector ETFs. The company is the third-largest holding in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) at 4.5% of assets. In the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Microsoft is the fifth-largest holding at 4.4% of assets. In the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), it is the fourth-largest at 4.7% of assets. Overall, Microsoft is a top-five holding across the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 ETFs, making it one of the most important reports of the week.

Microsoft Stock Price Action

Microsoft stock is up 2.40% to $398.43 on Tuesday, within a 52-week range of $349.20 to $555.45. The stock is down 16.2% year-to-date in 2026, so a strong earnings report could help reverse some of that decline.