Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, isn't holding his breath on the Clarity Act. Speaking Monday, he doubled down on his belief that Democrats will block the crypto bill not because of its flaws, but because they simply don't like President Donald Trump.

It all started during the Wolf of All Streets podcast, where Scaramucci argued that Democrats would do everything possible to stop initiatives Trump supports—including the Clarity Act, whose passage could “monetarily benefit” the president. As a result, he put the odds of the bill passing at roughly two in five.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz pushed back. He framed the standoff as ongoing “ethics” negotiations over preventing elected officials from profiting from cryptocurrency while in office. “There is a very fair compromise out there that both sides [Republicans and Democrats] should agree on,” Novogratz said. “Each side still has a few inches to give.”

Scaramucci responded on X, saying, “I want Michael to be right about this in the worst possible way fingers crossed that this gets passed but Sen Murphy is a no vote due to the fact that he dislikes Donald Trump. Which is where Washington is right now rather than doing what’s right for the people.”

Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) is leading a group of Democrats pushing for stricter ethics rules, and Scaramucci sees that as a proxy for anti-Trump sentiment. “Which is where Washington is right now rather than doing what’s right for the people,” he added.

Scaramucci acknowledged the new ethics rules in the bill aren’t perfect, but argued they’re still better than leaving the industry completely unregulated, which would invite “Wild West” labels. The updated draft of the Clarity Act prohibits federal officials, including the president and vice president, from “issuing or sponsoring” digital assets for profit while in office.

But seven Senate Democrats who spent months negotiating the bill said in a joint statement that the latest text “falls short” on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, and conflicts of interest. So the impasse continues.

Polymarket prices the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 37% as of this writing. That’s not great, but it’s not zero either. Scaramucci has his fingers crossed, but he’s not betting the farm.