Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock is having a moment. Shares surged 7% on Tuesday and are up another 16.75% in premarket trading Wednesday after the company dropped a preliminary fourth-quarter update that got investors excited about AI server demand.
The headline number? A record backlog with new orders exceeding $60 billion. That's a lot of servers. The company also guided gross margins to 15% to 17%, which is above what they previously told Wall Street to expect. Revenue is expected to come in near the low end of the $11 billion to $12.5 billion range, with the midpoint roughly in line with the $11.73 billion analysts were looking for.
Those new orders will be delivered over the next few quarters, giving investors better visibility into how strong AI demand really is. But keep in mind, these are preliminary and unaudited numbers — they could change as Super Micro closes the books.
Cramer's Take: Dell Could Be Next
Jim Cramer chimed in on X Tuesday evening, saying that if Super Micro "did that well," then Dell Technologies (DELL) "should be incredible." It's a classic read-through trade: if one server maker is seeing massive demand, others probably are too. Cramer's comment added fuel to the broader server rally.
Technical Picture: Still Healing, But Getting Better
Despite the pop, SMCI is still down nearly 49% over the past year. The stock remains below both its 50-day moving average ($32.93) and 200-day moving average ($33.81), which form a resistance cluster around $33.50. A death cross formed back in December 2025, when the 50-day fell below the 200-day — that's a bearish signal that still hangs over the chart.
On the bright side, shares have climbed above the 20-day SMA ($27.95) and the 100-day SMA ($30.30), suggesting near-term momentum is improving. The MACD is still below its signal line with a negative histogram, so the rebound isn't fully confirmed yet. Key support sits at $25.50, where buyers have stepped in before.
What Analysts Are Saying
The stock carries a Hold rating with an average price target of $33.67. Recent analyst moves include:
- Citigroup: Neutral, raised forecast to $33.00 (July 13)
- Wolfe Research: Initiated with Peer Perform (June 11)
- Mizuho: Neutral, raised forecast to $44.00 (June 1)
So analysts are cautious but not bearish — the big backlog and margin improvement are positive, but the stock still has a lot of ground to make up.
The Bottom Line
Super Micro's preliminary results suggest the AI server boom is still alive and well. The $60 billion backlog gives the company a strong pipeline, and the margin improvement is a nice surprise. But the stock is still trading below key technical levels, and the broader trend remains down. For now, it's a story of recovery — one that investors are cautiously optimistic about.
