Tom Lee, co-founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said Tuesday that the Clarity Act has better odds of passing than what you'd guess from looking at prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. And the reason is kind of ironic: the people who know the most about the bill's chances are the ones who aren't allowed to bet on it.
Lee pointed to comments from Sean Farrell, Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, who argued that prediction markets aren't fully reflecting "informed expectations" about the bill's passage. Farrell noted that "recent restrictions" are preventing Senators from trading on the outcome, so he places "less weight" on the quoted probability. Lee endorsed that view, saying Polymarket and Kalshi markets "likely underestimate" the odds of passage. "This is bullish," the Wall Street analyst added.
As of this writing, Polygon-based Polymarket prices the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 47%, while Kalshi gives it a 49% chance. Those numbers jumped 4 percentage points over the last 24 hours, following reports that the White House agreed to add an ethics provision to the Clarity Act—a key sticking point that has kept the bill tied up amid President Donald Trump's cryptocurrency business interests.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Congress is at the "1-yard line" on the Clarity Act, urging lawmakers to pass the legislation before the August recess. Democrats have long demanded stronger guardrails around President Trump's cryptocurrency businesses as a non-negotiable condition for their votes, and since the legislation requires 60 Senate votes to overcome a filibuster, bipartisan agreement is now mathematically required.
Trump's financial disclosures revealed he earned roughly $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency ventures last year, including World Liberty Financial and the Official Trump memecoin. That's a lot of skin in the game, and it's exactly why Democrats want clearer ethics rules before they sign off.
So the prediction markets say roughly 50-50, but Lee and Farrell think the real odds are higher—because the people who'd have the best information can't act on it. If you believe them, the Clarity Act might be a better bet than the market thinks.
