Archer Aviation (Archer Aviation (ACHR)) shares kept climbing in Tuesday's premarket session, adding to a nearly 20% surge from the day before. The stock was up about 1.7% to $5.40 as of early trading, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.5% providing a supportive backdrop.
The continued momentum suggests investors are still buzzing about Archer's big reveal on Monday: a new hybrid defense aircraft called "Thunder," developed in partnership with Anduril Industries. The platform is an autonomous vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft designed for both commercial and defense use, combining electric propulsion with an advanced rotor system aimed at improving speed, range, and payload capacity.
Archer said it expects to announce the first commercial partners for Thunder later this week. The collaboration broadens Archer's addressable market beyond the air taxi concept and into the defense sector, leveraging Anduril's expertise in autonomous systems. It's a strategic pivot that opens up new revenue streams and positions Archer as a player in the growing market for autonomous defense aviation.
Technical Picture: Mixed Signals
At $5.40, Archer shares are trading about 10.3% above their 20-day simple moving average of $4.89, which is a short-term bullish sign. But they're still 3.5% below the 50-day SMA of $5.59, and the 50-day remains below the 200-day SMA following a death cross in December 2025 — a classic bearish pattern that suggests longer-term pressure. The stock has dropped 55% over the past 12 months, so the recent pop is a welcome relief but not yet a trend reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 53.61, right in neutral territory. That means the stock isn't overbought or oversold — there's room to run in either direction. Key resistance is around $5.50, where sellers have stepped in before. Support is near $5.00, a level where buyers have historically shown up.
Earnings and Analyst Views
Archer is scheduled to report its next quarterly results on August 10, 2026. Analysts expect a loss of 25 cents per share, an improvement from the 36-cent loss a year ago. Revenue is projected at $1.99 million, up from essentially zero in the prior-year period — a sign that the company is starting to generate some sales, albeit from a very low base.
The stock carries a consensus Buy rating from analysts, with an average price target of $10.50 — nearly double the current price. Recent analyst actions show some caution, however. Canaccord Genuity lowered its forecast to $12.00 on May 12, and Needham cut its target to $9.00 on March 3, though both maintained Buy ratings. Needham had previously held at $10.00 in January.
ETF Exposure: A Double-Edged Sword
Archer's stock is heavily weighted in a few thematic ETFs, which means fund flows can move the stock. The biggest holders include:
- ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX): 3.72% weight
- Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI): 5.43% weight
- WisdomTree Battery Value Chain and Innovation Fund (WBAT): 3.33% weight
Because ACHR carries significant weight in these funds, any inflows or outflows will force automatic buying or selling of the stock. That can amplify moves in either direction, so it's worth keeping an eye on ETF flows.
The Bottom Line
Archer's Thunder partnership with Anduril is a genuine catalyst that expands the company's addressable market and taps into the defense sector's appetite for autonomous systems. The stock is still down massively over the past year, but the technicals are showing some life, and the analyst consensus remains bullish. The next few weeks — with commercial partner announcements and the August earnings report — will be critical in determining whether this rally has legs or fizzles out.
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