The U.S. and Iran are still trading blows, and tensions in the Middle East keep climbing. Neither side seems ready to blink.

Amid all this, prediction markets are asking a slightly odd question: will President Donald Trump actually visit Iran?

Fresh Strikes Confirmed

On Thursday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced new strikes against Iranian military infrastructure. They also noted that "More than 50,000 U.S. service members are operating across the Middle East and remain vigilant, lethal, and ready."

What the Prediction Market Thinks

The betting crowd is pretty sure Trump won't be booking a flight to Tehran anytime soon. On Kalshi, a federally authorized platform, over $1.5 million has been wagered on the contract "Will Donald Trump visit Iran?" The probability sits at just 4.7% for a visit before Jan 1, 2027.

Disclosure: Kalshi and MarketDash have an existing data collaboration agreement.

Iran's Red Sea Threat

According to reports, Iran has told Yemen's Houthi movement to get ready to shut down the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. attacks Iranian power infrastructure. The Houthis have reportedly positioned missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea's gateway.

Blockade Bets

Another Kalshi contract is betting on when the U.S. will announce the end of its Iran blockade. Right now, bettors give low odds for a resolution by July 24.