Intel Corp. (Intel (INTC)) shares took a hit in Thursday's premarket, falling more than 3% as investors trimmed exposure to tech stocks ahead of the open. Nasdaq futures were down 1.07%, and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.44%, setting a cautious tone for the day.
The trigger? Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) announced stronger-than-expected capital spending plans, which sparked a wave of profit-taking across the semiconductor sector. Intel, which has rallied sharply over the past year, was particularly vulnerable to a risk-off move.
Intel's shares have now dipped below their short-term trend levels, which might keep traders on the sidelines until buying interest returns. While the stock remains above its longer-term moving averages, the recent pullback suggests momentum has cooled off.
Technical Check: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain?
Let's look at the numbers. Intel is trading 18.3% below its 20-day simple moving average and 15.3% below its 50-day moving average. That's a notable gap. But zoom out, and the picture is different: the stock is still 15% above its 100-day moving average and a whopping 56.5% above its 200-day moving average.
The longer-term trend remains constructive. The 20-day moving average is still above the 50-day, and the 50-day is above the 200-day, following a golden cross back in August 2025. That's the kind of structure that keeps long-term bulls comfortable.
But momentum has weakened. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is below its signal line, with a negative histogram. In plain English: selling pressure is outweighing buying momentum in the near term. Intel hit its 52-week high in June before pulling back, and a key support level now sits near $98.50. That's the area traders will watch for signs of stabilization.
Earnings on Deck: Can Intel Deliver?
Intel is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 23. Wall Street expects earnings of 19 cents per share, compared with a loss of 10 cents per share a year earlier. Revenue is expected to come in at $14.40 billion, up from $12.86 billion in the prior-year quarter. So the narrative is one of recovery.
But analysts aren't exactly pounding the table. The stock carries a Hold consensus rating with an average price forecast of $94.85 — below Thursday's premarket price of around $99.69. Recent analyst actions show some optimism, though:
- KeyBanc maintained Overweight and raised its price forecast to $155 on July 14.
- UBS maintained Neutral and raised its price forecast to $121 on July 13.
- TD Cowen maintained Hold and raised its price forecast to $115 on July 13.
So there's a split: some see value, others are waiting for more evidence.
Momentum Score and ETF Exposure
Despite the recent dip, Intel earns a Momentum score of 98.97, reflecting its strong long-term performance. The stock remains in a longer-term uptrend, but traders may want to see it reclaim its short-term moving averages before turning more bullish.
Intel is also a significant holding in several tech-focused ETFs, which can amplify moves. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has a 7.36% weighting in Intel, the SPDR NYSE Technology ETF (XNTK) holds 6.35%, and the Invesco AI and Next Gen Software ETF (IGPT) has 7.25%. Large inflows or outflows in those funds can influence demand for Intel shares.
Price Action
As of Thursday's premarket, Intel shares were down 3.20% at $99.69, according to market data. The stock's next big test? Earnings on July 23, and whether it can hold that $98.50 support level.
