AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is having a rough Thursday. The stock extended Wednesday's losses, dropping more than 10% in premarket trading after the company priced a $1 billion convertible senior notes offering. Investors are fixated on the potential dilution, even though the cash is meant to fuel long-term growth.

On Wednesday, AST SpaceMobile priced a private offering of $1 billion in 1.625% convertible senior notes due 2034. The net proceeds, around $983.6 million, are earmarked for network expansion, additional launch access, and potential partnerships or acquisitions. The notes have an initial conversion price of about $79.57 per share, and the company entered into capped call transactions with a $149.20 cap price to reduce dilution. But the market isn't buying the reassurance—at least not yet.

Let's look at the technical picture, which is not pretty. AST SpaceMobile is trading below all its major moving averages, keeping the long-term outlook bearish unless the stock can reclaim those levels. At $60.00, the stock is 21.8% below its 20-day simple moving average of $76.30, 30.2% below its 50-day SMA of $85.94, and 27.8% below its 200-day SMA of $83.15. The moving average setup is weak: the 20-day SMA is below the 50-day SMA, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. However, the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, suggesting the longer-term uptrend has weakened but hasn't completely broken.

Momentum indicators also favor the bears. The MACD is below its signal line, and the histogram is negative, indicating fading upside momentum. The stock is forming a lower-high, lower-low pattern after hitting its 52-week high of $133.86 in May. The 52-week low is $36.08, set in September 2025. The next key support level is around $49.50, an area where buyers previously stepped in.

For ETF investors, AST SpaceMobile is held by a few funds, which could create additional buying or selling pressure. The Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF (GSEW) has a 0.27% weight, the First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF (FPX) has a 4.45% weight, and the Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF (UFOX) has a 2.96% weight. Large inflows or outflows in these funds could move the stock.

As of Thursday premarket, AST SpaceMobile shares were down 9.52% at $60.00.