If you've been enjoying relatively tame prices at the pump, you might want to fill up soon. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned Monday that escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz are about to hit drivers' wallets hard.
In a series of posts on X, De Haan noted that the U.S. has reinstated its naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices surging. "Gas prices will likely continue to climb as escalations continue," he said. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped to $75 a barrel on the news, and De Haan predicted the national average for gasoline would "again reach $4/gal in the next 7-10 days, if not sooner." He added that drivers should expect increases of 15 to 45 cents per gallon in the coming week, depending on their state's pricing cycle.
Diesel drivers face an even steeper climb. De Haan said the national average for diesel is likely to hit $5 per gallon "by the end of this week," as wholesale diesel prices surged 25 to 28 cents per gallon. He said the hikes could kick in as soon as Friday.
Trump's 20% Toll and Iran's Response
The blockade follows President Trump's announcement on Truth Social that the U.S. plans to charge a 20% fee on vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, responded by saying Trump was "absolutely right" to demand compensation, but reiterated Iran's role as the guardian of the Strait—a statement that underscores the delicate balance of power in the region.
Not everyone is convinced the fee is a smart move. Brett Erickson, a risk analyst at Obsidian Risk Advisors, dismissed the plan as a sign that Trump is desperate, though he didn't elaborate on alternative strategies.
Where Prices Stand Now
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average for a gallon of gas was $3.8590 on Tuesday. Diesel was at $4.8820 per gallon, up slightly from Monday's $4.8750, but still down from last month's $5.2190. On the oil front, West Texas Intermediate crude crossed $80 per barrel, trading at $80.60 at press time, while Brent crude reached $86.62. The United States Oil Fund (USO) surged 3.03% to $121.36 during pre-market trading on Tuesday.
With oil prices continuing to climb and no immediate resolution in sight, drivers should brace for higher costs at the pump—and possibly at the grocery store, as diesel prices ripple through the supply chain.
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