ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARS Pharma (SPRY)) is getting a new boss. On Tuesday, the company announced that co-founder and CEO Richard Lowenthal stepped down as an employee and officer, effective July 6. The board appointed Donn Casale, the company's president, as CEO and a director, effective July 7.
The move wasn't exactly a shock. William Blair wrote on Thursday, "While the move seems abrupt, we are not altogether surprised that the board may have been looking for a change given the stock performance over the past year on the back of a neffy launch that has not lived up to expectations." Shares of ARS Pharma have been under pressure as the launch of its epinephrine nasal spray Neffy has been slower than hoped.
But analyst Lachlan Hanbury-Brown at William Blair sees Casale's appointment as a positive. Casale brings more than 25 years of commercial experience, including building Dynavax Technologies' Heplisav-B vaccine franchise into a market leader before Sanofi acquired the company. That kind of track record could be just what ARS Pharma needs to get Neffy on a better trajectory.
After speaking with management, Hanbury-Brown said the company is now presenting a more measured base-case outlook for Neffy than before. He expects more details on the strategy and outlook during the second-quarter earnings call. Reflecting that cautious tone, he lowered his peak Neffy market penetration estimate to 25% from 40% and now expects a more gradual adoption curve over the coming years.
The analyst also revised his second-quarter estimates based on Bloomberg Symphony data showing roughly 65,000 Neffy prescriptions during the quarter, down from his prior estimate of 67,800. The lower prescription outlook is expected to be partially offset by higher inventory build as weekly prescription volumes accelerated toward quarter-end.
William Blair now projects second-quarter Neffy revenue of $26.4 million, down from its prior estimate of $27.2 million, compared with the consensus estimate of $28.6 million. Hanbury-Brown also lowered his fair value estimate to $21 per share from $31 while maintaining an Outperform rating.
As of Thursday's close, ARS Pharma shares were down 1.60% at $7.97. The stock has a long way to go to reach that $21 target, but with a new CEO at the helm, investors are watching to see if Casale can unlock Neffy's potential.
