NVIDIA Corp. (NVIDIA (NVDA)) shares edged higher in Thursday's premarket session, riding a wave of improving risk sentiment that lifted large-cap tech stocks. Nasdaq futures were up 0.61%, and S&P 500 futures added 0.21%. The move comes as the stock tries to stabilize after a rough June pullback, with traders watching whether it can hold above near-term support and push toward the mid-$200 area.
The rebound follows a brutal valuation reset. According to a Bloomberg report, NVIDIA has shed roughly $1 trillion in market value since its May 14 record high. That leaves the stock trading at its cheapest valuation since before the artificial intelligence boom — even though the underlying business is still firing on all cylinders.
So what happened? Investors have been rotating out of NVIDIA and into other semiconductor stocks, particularly memory chip makers like Micron Technology (MU). Analysts say the lower valuation reflects shifting sentiment, not weaker fundamentals. Despite the multiple compression, Wall Street keeps raising earnings estimates. NVIDIA is projected to deliver 82% revenue growth and 90% profit growth in fiscal 2027. Bloomberg Intelligence data also shows the company increased its server GPU market share to 97% at the end of 2025. That's dominance, not decline.
China May Allow NVIDIA H200 Chip Purchases: Report
In a separate development that could boost sentiment, Chinese officials recently told Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), ByteDance, and DeepSeek that they may soon receive permission to purchase some NVIDIA H200 chips, according to a report from The Information on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. If confirmed, it would mark a notable easing in restrictions and open up a significant revenue stream for NVIDIA.
Technical Analysis
On the charts, NVIDIA is trading about 1.3% above its 20-day simple moving average of $201.69. But it's still roughly 2.5% below its 50-day SMA of $209.52, suggesting the intermediate trend is recovering rather than firmly bullish. The longer-term picture is more constructive: the stock sits about 3.6% above its 100-day SMA of $197.27 and 6.8% above its 200-day SMA of $191.40.
Momentum is balanced. The relative strength index stands at 50.60, meaning neither buyers nor sellers have a clear edge. The moving averages tell a mixed story: the 20-day SMA remains below the 50-day SMA, reflecting weaker short-term momentum, but the 50-day SMA still holds above the 200-day SMA, supporting the longer-term uptrend.
Key resistance sits near $214, just above the 50-day SMA. Key support is around $199.50, near the 20-day and 100-day moving averages. A sustained move above $214 could improve the technical outlook. A break below $199.50, on the other hand, could shift attention toward the 100-day and eventually the 200-day moving averages.
Earnings and Analyst Outlook
NVIDIA's next earnings report is expected on Aug. 26, 2026. Wall Street expects earnings of $2.07 per share, up from $1.04 a year earlier. Revenue is projected to hit $91.70 billion, compared with $46.74 billion in the prior-year quarter.
The stock trades at about 31.3 times earnings. Analysts maintain a Buy consensus rating with an average price target of $323.83. Recent analyst actions include:
- China Renaissance initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $319 price target on June 5.
- Needham maintained its Buy rating and $270 price target on June 2.
- DA Davidson reiterated its Buy rating and $300 price target on June 1.
MarketDash Edge Rankings
MarketDash Edge assigns NVIDIA a Momentum score of 71.03, a Quality score of 98.08, a Growth score of 98.60, and a Value score of 7.19. The rankings suggest NVIDIA continues to benefit from strong growth and business quality, although its premium valuation leaves little room for execution missteps.
Top ETF Exposure
NVIDIA is a major holding in several exchange-traded funds, including:
- Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD): 9.66% weighting
- Sapient Quality Select ETF (SQS): 9.95% weighting
- REX AI Equity Premium Income ETF (AIPI): 9.71% weighting
Because of NVIDIA's large weightings, significant inflows or outflows in these ETFs can influence demand for the stock.
Price Action
NVIDIA shares were up 0.14% at $204.40 during premarket trading on Thursday, according to market data.
