Amazon is heading into its second-quarter earnings report with some serious momentum across its core businesses, and BNP Paribas thinks the stock's current price is a pretty good deal. The bank reiterated its Outperform rating and $345 price target on the e-commerce and cloud giant, arguing that the valuation looks attractive right now.
Analyst Nick Jones expects Amazon to report Q2 results during the week of July 27, with broad-based strength led by accelerating growth in Amazon Web Services. He says investors will be watching four key areas: AWS growth and capital spending trends amid rising data center component costs, the impact of Prime Day on retail sales, advertising growth, and operating income margins as the company keeps pouring money into AI infrastructure.
BNP Paribas is feeling bullish on AWS, forecasting revenue growth of 33% to 35% in the second quarter, well above the consensus estimate of about 31%. The firm also projects operating income of around $25 billion, compared with the Street's $23.6 billion. For the third quarter, the bank thinks Amazon will guide toward the high end of its outlook, with revenue of about $207 billion and operating income of $26 billion — both above current consensus estimates of $204 billion and $25 billion, respectively.
Investors should also expect higher full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance, as rising data center component costs are boosting AI infrastructure spending. On the retail side, BNP Paribas says data indicates Amazon's Online Stores and Third-Party Seller Services businesses are broadly in line with Wall Street expectations, implying about 14% year-over-year revenue growth. The firm left its financial estimates unchanged ahead of the earnings release.
Despite ongoing concerns about the return on investment from all that data center spending, BNP Paribas says it expects continued AWS acceleration and solid execution across Amazon's businesses. The stock's current valuation remains an attractive entry point, with shares trading broadly in line with their six-month average forward enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple.
Amazon is expected to report second-quarter earnings on or around July 30. Wall Street expects earnings of $1.82 per share, up from $1.68 a year earlier, and revenue of $196.02 billion, up from $167.70 billion. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating with an average analyst price target of $320.55. Recent analyst moves include TD Cowen maintaining a Buy but lowering its target to $340 on July 8, Wells Fargo maintaining Overweight and raising its target to $313 on July 2, and Truist Securities maintaining Buy and raising its target to $320 on May 29.
Now, let's look at the charts. Amazon shares were trading at $241.20 on Thursday, down about 1% on the day. The stock is sitting just 0.6% above its 20-day simple moving average of $239.53, but it's still about 5.2% below its 50-day moving average of $254.20. That suggests the intermediate-term recovery hasn't really taken off yet. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 46.61, which is neutral — sellers still have a slight edge, but the stock isn't oversold.
The longer-term picture is more encouraging. Amazon continues to trade above its 200-day moving average of $233.21, and the 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day moving average following a golden cross formed in May. Traders are watching resistance near $249.50, close to the 50-day moving average, while initial support sits around $225, where buyers have stepped in before.
