ExxonMobil (ExxonMobil (XOM)) shares are climbing Wednesday as markets digest the latest escalation in the Middle East—U.S. military strikes on Iran following attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, WTI crude surged 5.83% to $74.55 a barrel, and Brent gained 5.68% to $78.37.
For Exxon, higher oil prices are a direct tailwind. The company said it expects stronger commodity prices to significantly boost its second-quarter upstream earnings compared with the first quarter. Higher liquids prices alone are projected to add $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion to upstream results. Natural gas price changes are expected to have a smaller, more neutral impact—somewhere between a $0.2 billion loss and a $0.2 billion gain.
Meanwhile, the Chemical Products segment is also looking up: higher margins are anticipated to increase second-quarter earnings by $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion versus the prior quarter.
But it's not all smooth sailing. War-related disruptions on volumes are expected to hit upstream earnings by $0.6 billion to $0.8 billion, and Energy Products earnings by $0.2 billion to $0.4 billion in the second quarter. So while the net effect is still positive, the geopolitical noise adds a layer of uncertainty.
What Analysts Are Expecting for Q2 Earnings
The next big catalyst for Exxon comes with its earnings report, estimated for July 31, 2026. Here's what Wall Street is looking for:
- EPS Estimate: $3.76 (up from $1.64 a year ago)
- Revenue Estimate: $101.00 billion (up from $81.51 billion a year ago)
- Valuation: P/E of 23.9x, which suggests a fair valuation relative to peers
Analyst consensus is a Buy, with an average price target of $170.88. Recent moves from major firms show a mix of optimism and caution:
- TD Cowen: Buy, but lowered target to $155.00 (July 2)
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight, lowered target to $168.00 (June 29)
- B of A Securities: Upgraded to Buy with a $154.00 target (June 16)
The target cuts suggest that while the outlook is positive, there's some wariness about near-term headwinds.
Exxon's MarketDash Edge Rankings: Strengths and Weaknesses
Here's how Exxon stacks up on key metrics compared to the broader market:
- Momentum: Neutral (Score: 50.99) — The stock's recent trend is mixed, consistent with a consolidation phase rather than a clean breakout.
- Value: Strong (Score: 76.89) — The score suggests shares look attractive on common valuation measures relative to many peers.
- Growth: Neutral (Score: 68.18) — Growth factors are steady but not strong enough to dominate the near-term narrative.
The Verdict: Exxon's signal reveals a value-tilted setup with middling momentum—fitting for a stock trying to rebound but still working through overhead resistance. For longer-term bulls, the key is whether price can build acceptance back above the 50-day moving average and then challenge the low-$150s area without RSI rolling over.
ETF Exposure: Why Fund Flows Matter
Exxon's heavy weighting in several major ETFs means that any significant inflows or outflows for these funds could force automatic buying or selling of the stock. Key funds include:
- iShares Core High Dividend ETF (HDV): 8.42% weight
- State Street SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF (NANR): 9.11% weight
- iShares North American Natural Resources ETF (IGE): 9.99% weight
Significance: Because XOM carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.
Price Action
ExxonMobil shares were up 2.34% at $145.00 during premarket trading on Wednesday, according to market data.
