Verizon Communications Inc. (Verizon (VZ)) had a rough Tuesday. The telecom giant got kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and to make matters worse, it announced a new international joint venture with BT Group Plc (BT Group (BTGOF)) that comes with a hefty price tag. Shares were down 3.19% at $42.70 as of publication.
Let's start with the Dow exit. Verizon was replaced by Alphabet Inc. (Alphabet (GOOGL)), which means index-tracking funds and ETFs that follow the Dow had to sell their Verizon shares. That's a lot of forced selling, and it adds pressure to a stock that already had plenty on its plate.
Then there's the joint venture. Verizon is combining its international wireline connectivity and managed network services business with BT's corresponding operations into a new 50-50 joint venture. As part of the deal, Verizon will contribute its international business and make a $625 million cash payment, which the joint venture will then distribute to BT. The deal is subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.
But here's where the costs pile up. Verizon expects to record a second-quarter loss of $700 million to $800 million related to classifying the contributed business as held for sale. On top of that, the company expects severance charges of $350 million to $450 million from workforce reductions, plus asset rationalization charges of $200 million to $300 million tied mainly to exiting certain real estate and network assets. That's a lot of one-time costs for a company that's already under pressure.
The technical picture doesn't look great either. Verizon is trading 6.7% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), 8.3% below its 50-day SMA, 10.6% below its 100-day SMA, and 3.5% below its 200-day SMA. That's a sustained downtrend by any measure. Momentum indicators are also soft: the MACD is below its signal line, and the histogram is negative, suggesting bearish momentum persists. While the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA (a golden cross from February), the 20-day SMA is below the 50-day SMA, indicating short-term selling pressure. Technical resistance is near $48.50, while support is around $39.00.
Looking ahead, Verizon's next earnings report is scheduled for July 24. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.28, up from $1.22 a year earlier, on revenue of $35.37 billion, compared with $34.50 billion last year. Despite the recent weakness, analysts maintain an average Buy rating with a consensus price forecast of $50.68. Recent actions include a Hold initiation from Freedom Broker with a $53 price forecast, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley recently raised their price forecasts to $52 and $50, respectively.
So, is this a buying opportunity or a value trap? The Dow exit and JV charges are near-term headwinds, but the analyst consensus suggests there's upside from current levels. As always, do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before jumping in.






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