Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, has been keeping a low profile—like, really low. He hasn’t made a single public appearance since taking over after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in U.S. strikes on the first day of the U.S.-Iran war. Mojtaba was reportedly injured in those same strikes, and he’s stayed hidden ever since.
But that might change soon. Two big events could bring him out: a potential U.S.-Iran deal, or his father’s funeral, which kicks off on July 4.
Prediction markets are starting to price in the possibility. On Polymarket, a platform built on Polygon (POL) where users bet with USDC (USDC) stablecoins, over $3.3 million has been wagered on the question: “Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by…?”
Right now, bettors think there’s only a 3% chance he shows up by June 30. But the odds jump to 33% by July 31—up 14% recently—and hit 51% by September 30, up 6%. So the market sees it as increasingly likely, just not anytime soon.
Meanwhile, another Polymarket contract is tracking the odds of a final nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. The probability of a deal by July 31 has cratered to just 5%, down 41%. But by August 18, bettors see a 22% chance. That’s still low, but it’s a lot higher than the near-term outlook.
So if you’re waiting for Mojtaba to pop up on TV, you might have to wait a few months—unless a deal or a funeral speeds things up.
