The S&P 500 took a beating on Tuesday as semiconductor and memory-chip stocks got hammered, but if you ask the crowd on Polymarket, the benchmark is due for a rebound at Wednesday's open.

The index closed down 1.44% at 7,365.46. Yet the June 24 Polymarket contract shows a 71% probability that the S&P 500 will open higher today. Betting activity has been volatile, but the bulls are clearly in control of the prediction market so far.

Why That Number Matters

Investors are trying to figure out whether the recent selloff in AI-linked stocks is just a healthy pullback or the start of something uglier. The AI trade has been one of the market's strongest themes, and a deeper unwind would rattle portfolios.

All eyes are on Micron (MU), which reports earnings after Wednesday's closing bell. The report is expected to be a major test of demand for memory chips and the broader AI infrastructure buildout. If Micron delivers, it could calm nerves. If it disappoints, the selloff could accelerate.

Meanwhile, markets are also watching inflation and energy prices ahead of Thursday's release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index.

The Bull Case

Futures pointed higher Wednesday morning as investors looked to scoop up bargains after two straight sessions of tech-driven losses. S&P 500 futures were up 0.13% early on.

Micron shares rose 4.5% in premarket trading, and Sandisk (SNDK) gained 3.4%, suggesting traders are positioning for a positive earnings catalyst.

Lower oil prices could also give equities a boost. Brent crude fell below $76 per barrel, its lowest since February, as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and U.S.-Iran negotiations progress. That's good news for consumers and companies alike.

President Donald Trump added a political twist, accusing oil companies of "gouging" consumers by not cutting gasoline prices fast enough despite the drop in crude. He said he's instructed the Department of Justice to look into it, underscoring how sensitive inflation and energy costs remain.

Investors will also get May building permits and new home sales data today.

How the Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 7,366.51, well below Monday's close of 7,472.79, so the June 23 Polymarket contract resolved "Down." That contract saw $27,791 in traded volume before settling. Today's bettors are hoping for a different outcome.