Anthropic launched Fable 5, its most powerful consumer-facing AI model, earlier this month. But just days later, the company had to pull the plug after the U.S. government ordered it to block foreign nationals from using the model. Since then, Anthropic has been working to restore access, but there's been no official word on when Fable 5 will be back for its users.

Enter prediction markets. Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $450,000 has been bet on the contract "When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers?" According to bettors, there's a 47% probability that access will be restored "Before Jul 10, 2026," with odds rising to 58% for "Before Jul 17, 2026" and 61% for "Before Jul 24, 2026." So the crowd is betting on a resolution within the next month or so.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has reportedly cut off its Hong Kong employees' access to Anthropic's AI models, amid pressure from the company and the U.S. government. It's a sign that the fallout from the Fable 5 saga is spreading beyond just consumer access.

On the political front, David Sacks, co-chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, said that Fable can go back to general release once the company solves the "safety issue." President Donald Trump, during an interview with Axios, was asked if Anthropic was a threat to national security. His response: "Well, not now, but a week ago, maybe." So the government's stance seems to be softening, but the timeline remains uncertain.

For now, Anthropic users in the US are left waiting—and betting—on when Fable 5 will return.