Qualcomm (Qualcomm (QCOM)) is set to host its Investor Day on June 24, and the company is expected to make a big push into artificial intelligence. But not everyone is convinced the chipmaker can carve out a meaningful slice of the AI pie.

Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya is keeping his Underperform rating on the stock, even as he nudges the price target up from $165 to $195. His caution stems from a simple question: Is Qualcomm too late to the AI party?

The company is expected to lay out its AI opportunity, roadmap, and customer engagements, along with details on how it plans to diversify beyond its core handset business. Arya sees a near-term opportunity of $2 billion to $5 billion by fiscal 2027/2028, with a larger addressable market over the long haul. But he notes that the real goal of the event may be to convince investors that Qualcomm can generate the majority of its revenue from non-smartphone segments—data centers, AI, automotive, and the Internet of Things.

“We believe Qualcomm is re-entering a fast-growing but hyper-competitive AI market full of large incumbents,” Arya said. He names NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as the dominant players Qualcomm will have to contend with.

Qualcomm’s stock has had a strong run in 2026, up about 18% year-to-date and 33% over the past 52 weeks. But that rally itself is a concern for Arya. He estimates that Qualcomm could generate $10 billion in data center and AI sales by calendar 2028, but he suspects that optimism is already baked into the current share price. “We also expect QCOM to address recent media reports about potential M&A to expand its data center footprint,” he added.

On Tuesday, Qualcomm shares were down 8.5% to $203.04, within a 52-week range of $121.99 to $259.92. The pullback suggests that even with a big AI narrative, the market may be waiting for more concrete proof before buying in.

For retail investors, the key question is whether Qualcomm can truly compete in a space where NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD have already built massive moats. The Investor Day will be a critical test of whether the company’s AI story has legs—or if it’s just late to a crowded party.