Natera Inc. (Natera (NTRA)) is having a good Tuesday. The stock is up after the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) updated its clinical practice guidelines to include the company's Signatera technology for muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Specifically, the NCCN now recommends Signatera-guided adjuvant treatment — meaning the test can help doctors decide whether to give additional therapy after surgery.
This is a big deal for Natera. It's the third time the NCCN has given a thumbs-up to the company's circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) testing. Each recommendation strengthens Natera's credibility and could open the door to wider adoption. The update is backed by data from the IMvigor011 trial, which showed that Signatera can effectively guide treatment decisions post-surgery.
For investors, this is another signal that Natera is carving out a real niche in the oncology diagnostics space. The market for minimal residual disease (MRD) testing — which is what Signatera does — is estimated at $20 billion, and Natera is positioning itself to capture a chunk of it.
What the Charts Say
Natera's stock has been on a tear. It's currently trading about 9.6% above its 20-day simple moving average of $216.66, and roughly 14% to 15% above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages (which cluster around $206 to $208). That's a sign of strong demand — buyers are willing to pay a premium.
But the stock may need a breather. The MACD indicator is still above its signal line, suggesting buyers remain in control, but after a run like this, some consolidation wouldn't be surprising. Key resistance sits near $247, just below the 52-week high of $256.36. On the downside, support is around $209, close to the 50-day moving average of $208.39.
Earnings and Analyst Views
Natera is scheduled to report earnings on August 6. Analysts expect a loss of 51 cents per share, an improvement from the loss of 74 cents a year earlier. Revenue is projected to rise to $660.65 million from $546.6 million.
The stock has a consensus Buy rating from 14 analysts, with an average price target of $260.18. The high forecast is $300, and the low is $220. Recent analyst actions include RBC Capital initiating with an Outperform rating and a $275 target on June 11, Goldman Sachs starting coverage with a Neutral rating and a $245 target on June 5, and Wolfe Research maintaining an Outperform with a $260 target from June 2.
ETF Exposure
Natera also has a presence in several biotech ETFs, which can influence demand for the stock. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has a 2.51% weighting in Natera. The First Trust NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index Fund (FBT) has a 3.49% weighting. And the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) has a 4.08% weighting. When money flows into these ETFs, it can create additional buying pressure on Natera shares.
Price Action
As of Tuesday's publication, Natera shares were up 3.42% at $236.63.
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