Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) shares soared more than 7% on Monday after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the stock and laid out a compelling case for why this space company has serious upside. The catalyst? A mix of lunar exploration, national security programs, and the ever-expanding commercial space economy.

KeyBanc Upgrade Fuels Rally

KeyBanc upgraded Firefly to Overweight from Sector Weight and slapped a $50 price target on the stock. Analyst Michael Leshock said the recent selloff in space stocks following SpaceX's IPO created a nice entry point for investors. He argued that the long-term drivers behind the sector—rising satellite demand, constrained launch capacity, growing defense budgets, and increased NASA activity—are still very much intact.

Lunar Programs Drive Growth Outlook

KeyBanc highlighted Firefly's role as a key player in NASA's lunar ambitions. The company's Blue Ghost lunar lander is the only commercial lander to achieve a fully successful Moon landing, which is a pretty big deal. As NASA expands its Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, future lunar missions could provide meaningful upside.

The brokerage also raised its revenue estimates after Firefly snagged a $75 million MoonFall NASA contract, which KeyBanc said underscores the value of its Elytra spacecraft platform. The firm now sees 2026 revenue of about $445 million and 2027 revenue of roughly $746 million.

Beyond the Moon, KeyBanc sees growth from Firefly's launch business and its SciTec missile-tracking software unit. The analyst noted that SciTec is well positioned to benefit from increasing Pentagon demand for space-based defense and missile-tracking capabilities.

Valuation And Sector View

KeyBanc said Firefly trades at about 6.5 times its projected 2027 sales, near the low end of its peer group range of 5 to 15 times. The firm believes that valuation doesn't fully reflect the company's exposure to NASA's accelerated lunar programs and its long-term launch opportunities.

At the time of publication Monday, Firefly shares were up 7.22% at $34.17.