U.S. stock futures were pointing higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow all gaining ground after a positive close on Friday. The catalyst? A big geopolitical development and some company-specific fireworks.

President Donald Trump announced a peace agreement with Iran, saying the deal was "now complete." He added, "I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade." That sent crude oil futures tumbling more than 5% to around $80.46 a barrel, which is generally good news for an economy still wrestling with inflation.

This week is a short one—markets are closed on Friday for the Juneteenth holiday—so there's a lot to pack in. The main event is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows markets pricing a 97.4% likelihood that the Fed leaves rates unchanged. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.44%, while the two-year sat at 4.03%.

Here's how the major index futures were shaping up:

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 1.28% in premarket at $751.24, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) gained 2.17% to $737.02.

Stocks In Focus

SpaceX (SPCX)

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) was up 5.90% in premarket following its historic debut on Friday. The IPO propelled CEO Elon Musk's wealth to new heights, making him the world's first trillionaire. The stock's momentum shows no signs of slowing.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) rose 3.77% after reporting a 1.5% month-over-month increase in consolidated net revenue for May 2026, and a 30.1% year-over-year gain compared to May 2025. The chipmaker continues to benefit from strong demand.

Tower Semiconductor (TSEM)

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM) gained 5.01% after signing a multi-year InP supply deal with IQE. The stock has strong price trends across all time frames, though its value score is considered weak.

Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)

Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT) advanced 4.79% after unveiling Hellcat, a small unmanned aircraft system built on its Black Widow platform. The stock shows a weak long-term trend but strong short-term momentum, with a solid value score.

Micron Technology (MU)

Micron Technology Inc. (MU) surged 8.19% after Wolfe Research hiked its price target to $1,250 from $550, maintaining an "Outperform" rating. The stock has strong price trends across all time frames and a good growth score.

Dave and Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)

Dave and Buster's Entertainment Inc. (PLAY) was up 0.30% ahead of its earnings report after the closing bell. Analysts expect earnings of 61 cents per share on revenue of $580.46 million. The stock's price trends are weak across the board, and its value score is poor.

Cues From Last Session

Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed on a positive note on Friday, with financial, materials, and utilities stocks recording the biggest gains. Health care stocks bucked the trend, closing lower. Here's how the major indices finished the day:

Insights From Analysts

Mohamed El-Erian painted a picture of a complex macroeconomic landscape where the U.S. economy and stock market are being pulled in different directions. On one hand, economic data reveal sticky inflationary pressures. El-Erian noted that "headline PPI inflation for May came in hotter than expected at 6.5%," forcing markets to adjust to a harsher reality. As a result, investors have largely "abandoned prior hopes for 2026 Fed rate cuts and are now pricing in the possibility of a rate hike by year-end."

Despite these anxieties and a "notably divided" Federal Reserve facing a leadership transition, the stock market has found fuel in monumental corporate milestones. El-Erian pointed to the SpaceX IPO as a primary catalyst that "boosted stocks more generally." He expects the market to remain highly sensitive to upcoming monetary policy, with all eyes on the Fed's next moves to see how they frame the path forward amid an "acceleration in inflation." For investors, the outlook requires navigating a delicate balance between tech-driven equity euphoria and the tightening grip of a central bank facing deep needs for "reform and modernization."

Upcoming Economic Data

Here's what investors will be watching this week:

• Monday: May industrial production and capacity utilization (9:15 a.m. ET), June home builder confidence index (10:00 a.m. ET).
• Tuesday: May import price index, import price index minus fuel, housing starts, and building permits (all at 8:30 a.m. ET).
• Wednesday: May retail sales and retail sales minus autos (8:30 a.m. ET), May pending home sales and April business inventories (10:00 a.m. ET), FOMC interest rate decision (2:00 p.m. ET), Fed Chairman Warsh press conference (2:30 p.m. ET).
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims for week ending June 13, June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, May leading index (all at 8:30 a.m. ET).
• Friday: No economic reports—markets closed for Juneteenth.

Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session, down 5.2% to around $80.46 per barrel, as the Iran deal eased supply concerns. Gold spot rose 2.83% to $4,338.63 per ounce, still well below its record high of $5,595.46. The U.S. Dollar Index was 0.19% lower at 99.5560.

Bitcoin was trading 1.88% higher at $65,646.71 per coin over the last 24 hours.

Asian markets closed higher on Monday, with Australia's ASX 200, India's Nifty 50, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and China's CSI 300 all advancing. European markets were also higher in early trade.