President Donald Trump on Sunday announced that a framework agreement to end the war with Iran had been reached. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete."

While announcing this, Trump also said that "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow," stating that he had authorized the "toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz."

What Prediction Markets Are Saying

Despite Trump's call for an immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz and resumption of traffic, prediction markets are not very confident about traffic returning to normal in June.

Polymarket, a Polygon-based prediction platform that allows users to wager on outcomes using the USDC stablecoin, is currently running a contract titled "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Over $22.5 million has been bet on the contract so far.

Despite Trump announcing the deal with Iran, bettors have placed only a 30% probability on traffic returning to normal by June 30 — down 45% from previous odds. Bettors are more confident about the situation improving by July 31, placing a 64% probability on that, up 11%.

Oil Declines

WTI crude oil fell 5.12% to $80.53 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 4.67% to $83.25 per barrel.

Data from the UN Trade and Development shows that the average number of ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in February, before the Iran war began, was 129 per day. As per a tracker, currently only 2 ships are transiting the strait.