President Trump has once again raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz might soon see normal traffic, hinting that a deal with Iran is closer than ever. On Thursday, Trump said he called off "scheduled" strikes on Iran after details had been "approved by all parties."
"The strait will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be soon, very soon, maybe over the weekend in Europe," Trump said, according to a Reuters report. Iran, however, has said it has not reached a final deal with the U.S.
Prediction markets are taking note. Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $19.7 million has been bet on the contract "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?" Bettors currently assign a 46% probability to traffic returning to normal "Before Sep 1, 2026" — up 17% from earlier. More cautious bettors are looking at later dates: the "Before Oct 1, 2026" option has a 51% probability, and "Before Nov 1, 2026" sits at 56%.
To put that in perspective, data from the UN Trade and Development shows that in February, before the Iran war began, an average of 129 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily. Now, according to a tracker, just 3 ships are making the passage.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by MarketDash editors.
