On a day when most tech stocks were getting clobbered, ServiceNow (NOW) decided to go its own way. The stock gained about 2% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.3% and the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. Even the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) was in the red. So what gives?

Part of the story is technical. ServiceNow's shares are holding above several key moving averages—the 20-day simple moving average of $107.08, the 50-day SMA of $99.42, and the 100-day SMA of $106.40. That's a constructive setup for the near term. But the longer-term picture is more mixed: the stock still trades 22.2% below its 200-day SMA of $139.52 and remains below the death cross that formed back in August 2025. Momentum indicators suggest consolidation rather than a breakout, with the relative strength index sitting at a neutral 50.06. The next resistance level is around $111; a move above that could spark bullish momentum. On the downside, support near $98 is critical because it aligns with the 50-day moving average and a previous buying zone.

But the real story here isn't just about charts—it's about demand. BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski came out with a bullish take, saying ServiceNow remains on a path toward more than $30 billion in subscription revenue by fiscal 2030, supported by resilient demand, AI monetization, and growth across newer product areas. Slowinski noted that ServiceNow hasn't seen major macro-related demand pressure beyond the on-premise deal slippage it flagged in the first quarter in the Middle East. In fact, at least one delayed deal closed early in the second quarter, and the company still expects all delayed deals to close this year, though its guidance assumes only some will be completed.

Slowinski also highlighted that ServiceNow expects U.S. federal net new annual contract value to accelerate in fiscal 2026, with the acceleration weighted toward the back half of the year, as the company laps prior DOGE and government shutdown effects. And M&A will help too: Armis is expected to contribute 125 basis points and Moveworks 100 basis points to both subscription revenue growth and cRPO growth in the second quarter and fiscal 2026.

Looking further out, ServiceNow's 2026 Financial Analyst Day targets call for subscription revenue of more than $30 billion in the base case and about $32 billion in the bull case by fiscal 2030. That outlook assumes slower growth in mature businesses like core ITSM and ITOM, offset by faster growth in AI Control Tower/Data Analytics, Security & Risk, and CRM/front office. Slowinski said ServiceNow sees each of those newer areas potentially growing at compound annual growth rates of more than 25%. Customers, he added, are moving from broad AI experimentation toward tools that help monitor usage, manage risk, and demonstrate returns—which aligns perfectly with ServiceNow's strength in simplifying complex IT environments.

Then there's pricing. ServiceNow's new Foundation, Advanced, and Prime packaging now includes AI at every level. Customers have responded well to its hybrid pricing model, which combines seat-based pricing with consumption-based AI usage. Slowinski said ServiceNow expects a 20% to 30% price uplift on base seat pricing when customers adopt AI features, and the company can also charge for AI assists after customers use their initial allocation. Importantly, ServiceNow remains confident it can monetize AI while keeping gross margins above 80% through fiscal 2030, helped by routing some tasks to small-language models in its own data centers and using existing workflow logic rather than sending every task to frontier models.

Slowinski also highlighted Project Arc, ServiceNow's collaboration with NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) to develop an autonomous enterprise desktop agent using OpenShell and ServiceNow governance tools.

Wall Street, for its part, maintains a Buy consensus rating on the stock, with an average price forecast of $139 based on 50 analyst ratings. Recent analyst actions include Bank of America Securities maintaining a Buy rating with a $130 forecast, Bernstein raising its forecast to $236 while keeping a Market Perform rating, and Macquarie maintaining a Neutral rating with a $109 forecast.

As of Wednesday's publication, ServiceNow shares were up 1.73% at $108.82. Not bad for a risk-off day.