BioCardia (BCDA) shares are taking a hit Tuesday, sliding after the clinical-stage biopharma company announced a capital raise that dilutes existing shareholders. But one Wall Street analyst isn't fazed—and sees a price target that's roughly 30 times where the stock trades now.

The catalyst for Tuesday's drop is a $4.4 million financing deal BioCardia announced Monday. The company sold 3,509,604 shares on Friday at an average fixed price of $1.279 per share. No new warrants were issued, but the influx of millions of new shares into the open market is a classic dilution event that tends to pressure stock prices.

That's exactly what happened: BCDA shares were down 10.82% in premarket trading Tuesday at $0.82.

But here's where it gets interesting. Despite the sell-off, HC Wainwright & Co. reiterated its Buy rating on BioCardia and maintained a $25 price target. That's a huge vote of confidence for a stock trading below a dollar.

The timing is notable. The funding round comes right after a Friday rally where BCDA shares surged 45.71% to $1.20. That pop happened after the company confirmed that the FDA acknowledged its ongoing CardiAMP Heart Failure II Trial could single-handedly support a Premarket Approval (PMA) pathway. In other words, the FDA said the trial might be enough to get the therapy approved—no additional studies needed. That's a big deal for a small biotech.

But the charts tell a more cautious story. The longer-term trend remains bearish: BCDA is trading 14.8% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), 24.3% below its 50-day SMA, 29.4% below its 100-day SMA, and 37.7% below its 200-day SMA. The moving averages themselves are stacked in a bearish order—20-day below 50-day, 50-day below 200-day—which typically signals a downtrend across multiple timeframes.

That said, momentum is trying to improve. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is above its signal line, and the histogram is positive. In plain English, that often means sellers are losing control, even if the stock hasn't flipped into an uptrend yet. It's like the storm is passing, but the ship is still taking on water.

From a levels perspective, the stock is trading below its 52-week low of 84 cents. That's a dangerous spot—if buyers don't step in quickly, the stock can fall through that level like an air pocket. The last notable swing low was in May, and with the 12-month performance down 58.93%, the burden is on bulls to prove a base can form before any moving-average reclaim becomes realistic.

So what's the takeaway? BioCardia is a high-risk, high-reward story. The dilution is painful in the short term, but the FDA's positive signal on the CardiAMP trial gives the company a real shot at a blockbuster approval. HC Wainwright sees that potential, hence the $25 target. But the charts say the stock needs to prove it can hold support first.