Apple has shipped over 450 million iPhones capable of running Apple Intelligence through the first quarter of 2026. That's a staggering number, and according to Counterpoint Research, it gives Apple the world's largest installed base of generative AI-ready smartphones. In theory, that should be a massive advantage: any new AI feature can reach millions of users almost instantly.

But hardware is only half the story. Counterpoint published a report Monday warning that Apple has fallen behind its rivals in AI software, particularly after its 2024 promise to deliver a revamped Siri. With Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference happening this week, the pressure is on. Counterpoint says Apple needs to "deliver a revamped Siri showcasing practical use cases" and "make a strong statement."

There's also the reported partnership with Google's Gemini, but details have been scarce. WWDC could clarify what that collaboration actually means for Siri.

The Agentic AI Threat

So far, the delay hasn't hurt iPhone sales. The iPhone 17 is outperforming its predecessor, and first-quarter iPhone revenue hit a record. That suggests AI isn't yet the main reason people buy iPhones. But Counterpoint Principal Analyst Varun Mishra warns that Apple shouldn't get complacent. "However, Apple should not delay upgrading Siri for too long. The arrival of Agentic AI is imminent, and this could fundamentally alter how humans interact with their smartphones," Mishra said.

Agentic AI is the next big thing—AI agents that act as the primary interface, sitting above operating systems and apps. If that shift happens, the smartphone industry could be reshaped. Apple has historically been a latecomer to new technologies, but it has often won through superior execution and user experience. Counterpoint says expectations for a revamped Siri are high, and Apple should focus on practical use cases that improve the experience without compromising privacy.

The report concludes that even if the long-term impact of agentic AI is uncertain, the opportunity is too big for Apple to ignore.

Stock Rally and Technicals

Apple stock was up 2.14% at $313.92 on Monday, riding a broader tech rally. The Nasdaq gained 2.21%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.74%. Apple's long-term uptrend remains strong: the stock is 3.4% above its 20-day moving average, 11.9% above its 50-day, and 18.6% above its 200-day. The golden cross from September 2025 is still intact, supporting a bullish outlook.

But momentum is cooling. The MACD indicator is below its signal line, suggesting buying pressure has eased. With shares near their 52-week high of $316.94, traders are watching whether Apple can break out or pull back toward support around $265, which aligns with the 200-day moving average.

Analysts remain bullish. The stock has a Buy rating with an average price target of $321.10. Recent moves include Wedbush maintaining a $400 target on June 5, Bank of America raising to $380 on May 26, and Tigress Financial boosting to $375 on May 14.

Apple's AI hardware lead is real, but software is where the battle will be won. WWDC is the moment to prove Siri can keep up.