Oil Spikes 8% on Iran Tensions, S&P 500 Stalls as Software Stocks Soar
MarketDash
Crude oil surged nearly 8% – its best day since April 2 – after US strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation, stalling the S&P 500's rally even as software stocks soared.
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Crude oil rocketed nearly 8% on Monday – its best single session since April 2 – after the U.S. struck Iranian military sites and Tehran retaliated against an air base, throwing the region's fragile ceasefire into doubt.
The energy shock and a jump in Treasury yields stalled the S&P 500's record run, leaving the benchmark roughly flat while the Dow and small caps slipped.
While President Donald Trump attempted to calm nerves overnight, reiterating that Tehran wants to make a deal, Iranian state media reported that Tehran had suspended all message exchanges with Washington in protest over attacks in Lebanon.
Energy markets bore the brunt of the standoff.
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 7.5% to around $93.95 a barrel, while Brent climbed nearly 8% to roughly $97.00, as traders priced in the risk of disrupted Gulf flows even as OPEC+ signaled a modest July output increase of 188,000 barrels per day.
The oil surge rippled into rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose about 6 basis points to 4.51%, the 2-year added roughly 8 basis points to 4.09%, and the 30-year held near 5.01%. Market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike in December continue to sit above 60%.
Adding to the hawkish tone, the ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 54.0 for May, its strongest level in four years and well above the 53.0 consensus.
The S&P 500 held steady at 7,580, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3% to 50,898.62.
The Nasdaq 100 bucked the caution, adding 0.3% to 30,413.93 for a fresh record on the back of strength in AI and software. Within Magnificent Seven stocks, Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) rose 4.4% to $220.32 after unveiling its new RTX Spark PC superchip.
Nvidia's reveal of RTX Spark supercharged a broad re-rating across enterprise software, with the efficiency narrative lifting names tied to AI workloads.
That wave carried the day's top Russell 1000 gainers. MongoDB Inc. (MDB) jumped 17.4%, HubSpot Inc. (HUBS) soared 16.5% and Twilio Inc. (TWLO) rose 14.7%, each riding the sector-wide AI-software re-rating rather than company-specific news.
The standout corporate story was a takeover bid. MGM Resorts International (MGM) surged 15.2% to $50.30 after Barry Diller's IAC submitted an all-cash bid of $48.30 per share, valuing the casino operator at roughly $18 billion; the firm already holds a 26.1% stake.
On the downside, FedEx Corp. (FDX) plunged 18.5% to $335.59, though the drop was mechanical: the company completed the spin-off of its less-than-truckload unit, FedEx Freight (FDXF), distributing one Freight share for every two FedEx shares held.
FedEx actually raised full-year earnings guidance to $19.30-$20.10 per share, up from a prior $17.80-$19.00 range.
Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB) dropped 14.0% despite a Q1 revenue beat at $200.4 million and a $2.2 billion backlog, as a recent Blue Origin New Glenn explosion stoked sector-wide launch concerns and profit-taking after a triple-digit run, while AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) fell 9.9% after posting Q1 revenue of just $14.7 million versus a $36.6 million estimate.
QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM) sank 7.6% to $231.96 as Nvidia's 100-plus TOPS RTX Spark superchip overshadowed Qualcomm's own Dragonfly AI data-center launch and raised doubts about Snapdragon's PC dominance.
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