Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has sounded the alarm on Alberta's proposed referendum, warning it could trigger a crisis reminiscent of Brexit for Canada. In his most direct criticism since Premier Danielle Smith announced the referendum proposal, Carney labeled it "a very dangerous bluff."

The referendum, scheduled for October, will ask Albertans whether the province should proceed with a formal separation vote. Carney drew parallels with the UK's 2016 Brexit referendum, which led to years of political turmoil and economic uncertainty.

"You saw, I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom when the view was, vote for this, it'll be soft and then we'll negotiate, etc. And they ended up, and they're still, 10 years later, trying to undo what people didn't think they were voting for, but what they ended up with," Carney said.

Carney's remarks echo his January Davos speech, where he advocated for unity amid the "rupture" in the global multilateral order. He also suggested that the referendum question could shake the confidence of potential investors, adding another layer of economic risk.

Despite the tough talk, Carney has been working to bridge the longstanding gap between Ottawa and Alberta. He signed a memorandum of understanding with Smith's government, potentially setting the stage for a new oil pipeline from Alberta's oilfields to the British Columbia coast. This is part of Carney's "nation-building" major projects strategy, aimed at strengthening the Canadian economy against economic threats.

"I certainly will be campaigning for Canadian unity. I've begun that," Carney said.

Alberta Separatism Debate Grows

The proposed referendum reflects growing separatist sentiment in Alberta, where many believe federal Liberal policies and climate regulations have harmed the province's vital energy industry. If successful, the vote could dramatically reshape Canada's political and economic landscape.

On Monday, Danielle Smith said she would campaign for Alberta to stay in Canada if a separation referendum proceeds, despite her government continuing preparations that could allow such a vote. In a post on X, Smith acknowledged growing frustration in Alberta over what she called "the last decade under the Trudeau-NDP," but urged residents not to give up on Canada.

Did Alberta Separatists Meet Trump Administration?

In February, separatist leaders in Alberta said they met with U.S. State and Treasury Department officials to discuss how an independent Alberta could operate, including adopting the U.S. dollar and creating its own military and border system. U.S. officials described the meetings as routine staff-level discussions with civil society groups and said no commitments or further talks are planned.

Notably, President Donald Trump on several occasions in the past has referred to Canada as the "51st state" of the U.S.

Carney has meanwhile urged Washington to respect Canada's sovereignty and proposed concessions to Alberta, including easing some climate policies and supporting a new Pacific coast pipeline.

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