The Strait of Hormuz — a 24-mile-wide chokepoint that handles over a fifth of the world's crude oil — remains closed, and everyone's wondering when it'll reopen. If you ask the bettors on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, the odds are looking cautiously optimistic.

Polymarket Traders Weigh In

As of Tuesday, Polymarket traders saw a 40% chance the Strait reopens before June 30, 2026. The probability jumps to 63% by July 31 and hits 84% by the end of the year. So, the crowd thinks normal traffic is likely, but not immediately.

Kalshi Bets on Strait Reopening by Year-End

Over on Kalshi, bettors were a bit more conservative: a 33% chance of resuming pre-war traffic by end of June, and a 77% chance by year-end. Reopening by the end of May? Not probable, they say.

US Strikes Iran, Trump Touts Global Coalition

This all comes after the U.S. conducted strikes on Iranian missile sites and boats allegedly planting underwater mines. U.S. Central Command called it self-defense. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, urged Iran to sign a deal and join what he called an "unparalleled" global coalition. He'd hinted a deal was close but warned against rushing.

Oil Prices

Oil prices have actually fallen on hopes of a deal, with West Texas Intermediate crude at $91.95/bbl as of this writing. Investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki noted that falling gas prices could help markets grow. So, the reopening of the Strait isn't just a geopolitical drama — it's a key factor for your portfolio.